Goldman is assuming that Strait of Hormuz reopens in 5 days. Flows normalize by mid-April. Q2 average Brent price $76/bbl.
Source: Open Square Capital, Goldman Sachs
Will we ever break out of that SPX range?
The index has spent almost six months trading mostly within a 200-point range (with a few over- and undershoots). Impressive given the many under-the-hood moves and the latest political chaos. Source: TME, LSEG
Nvidia's Forward PE ratio is down 47 points, from 68.3x in Nov, 2021 to 21.3x today.
For context, Walmart trades at 43.1x, double Nvidia. Source: Matt Cerminaro
How many days of oil does Asia have in reserve?
Our 2025 AI Job Impacts Analysis found that starting in 2028-2029, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Yet, each year, over 32 million jobs will be significantly transformedAcross Asia, reserves range from more than 250 days in some countries to just a few weeks in others. In times of geopolitical tension, energy security is firmly back in focus. Source: Khaosod English
Gartner: There will be no “jobs apocalypse” due to AI — but there will be job chaos.
Our 2025 AI Job Impacts Analysis found that starting in 2028-2029, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Yet, each year, over 32 million jobs will be significantly transformed.
President Trump announced that the United States will provide insurance for "ALL Maritime Trade" via the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and will provide Navy escorts, "if necessary."
Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. Markets bounced and oil retreated on the news Source: zerohedge
The FT graphic below shows the Strait of Hormuz flow.
(Note: likely understates flow because this will not capture tankers who are making the run with their transponders turned off) Source: Rory Johnston, FT
The US spends more on defence than the next nine countries COMBINED
Source: Cheddar Flow
