Yesterday, Gold put in its biggest up day in quite some time during yesterday’s session.
The shiny metal broke above the short-term downtrend line and also pushed out of a dynamic wedge-like formation. The key for a more sustained squeeze is a close above the $4800 area, right where the 50-day moving average comes in. More on gold. Source: TME
The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.0% over the next twelve months.
Source: Hedgeye, Bloomberg
AI Memory Stocks Are Crushing the Market
The bottleneck is spreading across DRAM, NAND, SSD controllers, HDDs, advanced packaging, process control, server racks, and wafer fab equipment. Every layer of the stack is being repriced as AI workloads demand more bandwidth, more capacity, and faster data movement. Source: Sergey
The semiconductors ETF $SMH is up roughly +153% over the past year, the strongest 1-year performance on record going back to 2001 and roughly 4 standard deviations above the long-run average.
As DataTrek notes, staying bullish from here increasingly requires confidence that the semiconductor cycle and AI-driven backlog can remain durable for much longer. Source: The Market Ear
World Cup in one chart
Source: Zerohedge, BofA
The S&P500 has rallied 16% since the March 30 lows.
10 stocks have been responsible for almost 70% of this rally, with Alphabet $GOOG and Nvidia $NVDA alone accounting for 25% of the whole index’s returns. Source: Negligible Capital
The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in gold.
Source: Shanghai Macro Strategist
$GOOGL trades at 133x free cash flow.
For context: its pre-COVID multiple was ~20x. And free cash flow hasn't grown since 2021. GQG Partners — one of the world's top institutional investors — just published a full research note titled: "Not Much Alpha Left in This Bet." Their three concerns: 1. AI is cannibalizing Google's core search revenue. Over 50% of searches may now end without a single click. No click = no ad impression. 2. CapEx is exploding. Google Cloud's capital spending now exceeds the revenue it generates. $175–185B in CapEx planned for 2026. Google Cloud generated $ 59B in revenue in 2025. 3. Advertising is cyclical. When the economy slows, ad budgets are the first to be cut. The last time this happened — 2022 — the stock fell 40%. Is Alphabet priced for perfection ? Source: Thierry from arvy @ThierryBorgeat
