Not yet halfway through this earnings season.
But guide cuts are looking pretty good thus far. Let see if this number improves or worsens this week as 25% of S&P 500 market cap reports earnings Source: RBC, GS
Argentina Dollar bonds jump after Milei's landslide midterm win.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Here's an example of supply chain risk for some European companies.
Interesting numbers on Nexperia: their chips are used by half Europe's auto companies, 86% of medical device companies and almost all (95%) the mechanical engineering sector. Source: Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand on X, FT
Total Put/Call Ratio falls to its lowest level since 2020
Bulls are going for it 🚀 Source. Barchart
The "jobless growth" in one chart
The low-fire, low-hire labor market could become a "high firing - no hiring" when the next recession will arise Source chart: Antonio Linares @alc2022
The S&P500 valuation is higher than historical average for a reason.
Net income margins are in a secular uptrend. "People throw that word around far too easily; a bubble is a relatively rare event, and not something that occurs annually. We see bubbles only once every few decades." https://buff.ly/hPw3gQj by @Ritholtz
🔥 From “Has-Been” to “Too Important to Fail” 🔥
Intel’s comeback story isn’t just about chips — it’s about industrial strategy. As The Wall Street Journal noted today, “Investors seem to be betting that Intel is too important to fail.” 💡 The U.S. government’s deep involvement — driven by national security priorities — has transformed Intel’s trajectory: 🏛️ Direct support through policy and funding 🤝 Indirect momentum as partners and investors rush back in 💰 New contracts, new capital, and renewed confidence This is what modern industrial policy looks like — when national interest and private innovation align. Intel isn’t just rebuilding a company… it’s reshaping an ecosystem. Source: Mo El Erian, WSJ, Factset
🚨 Major Breakthrough in U.S.–China Trade Talks! 🚨
Over the weekend, Chinese and U.S. economic officials reached a framework deal set for final approval by President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping — and it’s a big one. Here’s what’s on the table 👇 ✅ Pause on steeper U.S. tariffs that were set to hit Chinese imports. ✅ China delays its rare earth export controls for a year while it reconsiders policy. ✅ U.S. soybean sales to China resume — a major win for American farmers. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the talks — held on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur — effectively defused the threat of Trump’s 100% tariffs slated for November 1. This could mark a critical de-escalation in one of the world’s most consequential trade tensions. 🌏 📊 If finalized, this deal could reshape global supply chains, stabilize markets, and give both sides breathing room to rebuild trust.
