Korean stocks volatility trades like oil volatility
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
IEA Plans Record Oil Release, But Supply Shock May Persist
The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche
U.S. intel claims Iran has started dropping naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz because apparently missiles, drones, and regional chaos weren’t enough drama for 2026.
Only a few dozen mines are confirmed so far… but that’s the appetizer. Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go, enough to turn the strait into a long-term maritime death maze. Clearing it could take months, and that’s if no one’s shooting during the process. Source: Map Narratives, Mario Nawfal on X
Is it the most important chart to consider right now?
Source: BofA
Markets May Be Shifting From Digital Leaders to Real Assets
In 2026, market leadership is shifting from AI-focused mega-cap tech to the physical economy powering it, including semiconductors, materials, and energy infrastructure. Geopolitical shocks, rising oil, and resource demand highlight underinvested real assets. This could mark a structural rotation from paper assets toward tangible resources essential for AI, electrification, and reindustrialization. Source: Crypto Rover
Asian nations rely more on energy imports from the Strait of Hormuz than Europe, the US, or Oceania.
Source: Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600
Fed Faces Uncertain Path as Inflation Data Lags Reality
February CPI data shows inflation cooling and core CPI at 2.5%, suggesting possible Fed rate cuts. But the report predates the U.S.–Iran conflict and oil spike. With softening jobs and rising energy costs, Fed policymakers face a tough March 18 decision amid conflicting signals between outdated data and current global shocks. Source: Bull Theory, Crypto Rover
Everyone keeps asking the wrong question about Iran. “Why hasn’t Trump crippled Iran’s oil exports?”
Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a critical but vulnerable target. Striking it could quickly cripple Iran’s oil economy. However, it has not been attacked because doing so could trigger retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and cause a surge in global oil prices. Some analysts suggest the strategy is to preserve Iran’s oil assets rather than destroy them. Source: FT, Mario Nawfal
