Syz the moment

Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the December 10th meeting went from 70% on Monday to 42% on Friday. However: - There were no major government data releases, as the Government was still closed until Wednesday - The Federal Reserve chairman did not speak this past week. So what drove this shift in the outlook for policy? Here's an explanation by Jim Bianco: * 4 Fed voters are arguing for another rate cut (with Miran arguing for at least a 50 bps cut). * 5 voters are arguing for holding rates steady * 3 voters are either neutral or unclear (so far) on how they will vote. This includes Chair Powell. For 40 years, Fed policy was effectively set by one person, the chair. The monetary policy vote was typically 12-0 or 11-1. The Fed justified this unified front by saying it reduced market uncertainty, thereby making it more effective. Now this is changing, and so is the market’s view of the Fed. With higher-than-normal uncertainty, the market is pricing a 50/50 chance of a cut. Normally, these odds are much closer to 0% or 100% when a meeting is less than a month away. What Changed? We would argue Trump’s constant bashing of the Fed/Powell and Fed Governor Miran’s vocal arguments for a 50 bps cut appear to be breaking the 40-year stranglehold the Fed chair has had over committee voting. No longer are the 12 FOMC voters going to fall in line with the chair’s desires. They are quickly considering themselves truly independent voters and will vote as they see fit. Maybe Fed Governor Stephen Miran is leading the way. If he can ignore the Fed groupthink and act completely independently, publish blog posts explaining his rationale, and do numerous interviews to explain his opinion, then why can’t everyone else? The result is 12 truly independent voters. This is how every other major central bank and the Supreme Court operate. If this is truly happening, it marks the end of the Fed’s unanimous voting.

Source: Source: Christophe Barraud @C_Barraud Bloomberg

Bitcoin's sentiment is at the LOWEST level in over a year. The last 4 times this happened, Bitcoin bounced immediately. $BTC Source: Subu Trade

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) just made a big statement. In Q3, the near-$1 trillion sovereign wealth fund fully exited nine US-listed companies — including names like Visa and Pinterest — cutting its exposure to US equities by 18%. Yet PIF still holds $19.4B across six US-listed giants, including Uber and Take-Two Interactive. For context? Its US equity holdings once peaked at $56B in late 2021. And then there’s the gaming play. 🎮 PIF has kept its stake in Electronic Arts — but that will soon shift off the US-listed books once the $55B take-private mega-deal closes. It’s the largest leveraged buyout in history. PIF is leading the consortium alongside Silver Lake Capital and Jared Kushner, with PIF writing the biggest equity check — positioning it as EA’s majority owner. This is just the latest move in a fast-growing gaming investment spree driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s personal interest in the sector. All of this lands right before the crown prince’s highly anticipated visit to the White House on Tuesday, where he is expected to meet President Trump and sign a series of major defence and trade agreements. 💬 Big question: Is this a strategic portfolio rebalance? A geopolitical signal? Or the beginning of a new investment era focused on entertainment, gaming, and national digital transformation? What’s your read on this move? Source: FT https://lnkd.in/e69yETNc

Source: Cointelegraph

You can pin most of it on a hit to exports from U.S. tariffs hammering demand. Consumer spending barely moved at 0.1% growth. Business investment held steady at 0.3%, suggesting corporate confidence hasn't completely evaporated yet. Source: StockMarket.news

And it’s coming with a major shift in strategy. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi isn’t tiptoeing around slow growth or budget pressure. She’s going all-in with: ✅ Tax cuts ✅ Help with rising utility bills ✅ Direct support to local communities — even food aid But here’s the real story 👇 Japan isn’t just trying to ease short-term pain. It’s placing massive strategic bets on the industries that will define the next decade: 💡 Artificial Intelligence 🔧 Semiconductors 🚢 Shipbuilding 🛡️ Defence & advanced manufacturing This is about future-proofing Japan’s global competitiveness — especially in Asia’s fast-moving tech ecosystem. 💼 What does this mean for investors? This stimulus could be a major tailwind for: 📈 Japanese equities 🛍️ Consumer-focused sectors 💻 Tech, AI, and semiconductor plays But there’s a twist: expect some yen volatility. With the government coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low, markets will be watching every move. 🔍 The big question Will this $110B push spark sustained long-term growth — or just a short-lived burst of momentum? The world is watching closely. Because how Japan executes this plan could reshape Asia’s tech supply chains and become a blueprint for how far government spending can go in revitalizing an economy. Source: StockMarket.news

Thiel Macro has cut US equity holdings from about $212m to $74m and is now basically parked in Tesla, Microsoft and Apple. Source: Wall Street Engine