Citadel’s Global Fixed Income fund and Taula are among the hedge funds worst hit by last week’s market turmoil, while D.E. Shaw & Co.’s two main vehicles were a rare bright spot in the industry.
Here's all the latest numbers collected by Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07 / Bloomberg
A toxic cocktail for financial markets?
1) Iran war put downward pressure on global economic growth and upward pressure on global inflation: 2) US labor market continues to weaken 3) The Fed has less leeway to cut rates because of rising inflationary pressure (and despite weakening labor market and weakening growth) 4) Some investors start to lose confidence in some Private Credit Funds as banks are forced to mark down their bad credit exposure. All of them are manageable separately. But the mix is not easy to deal with...
U.S. Presidents on Fiscal Responsibility
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” – Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” – Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget deficit under control.” – George H.W. Bush (1989) “We must put our fiscal house in order.” – Bill Clinton (1993) “We can pay down a large portion of the national debt.” – George W. Bush (2001) “Families across the country are tightening their belts … the federal government should do the same.” – Barack Obama (2010) “We will start to balance our budget and pay down our debt.” – Donald Trump (2016) “My plan will reduce the deficit.” – Joe Biden (2022) “We will balance the federal budget.” – Donald Trump (2024) Charlie Bilello
3 scenarios on Iran War by UBS
1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions. 2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization. 3. Extended disruption / infrastructure damage: Severe supply shock; Brent could reach $150+ by 2Q26 and TTF ~€80, creating a crisis similar to the 2022 European gas shock. ➡️ One thing is clear: OVX is not pricing the de-escalation scenario, closing at 121. Source. UBS, TME
Another one!! $33 Billion Cliffwater Private Credit Fund limits redemptions to 7%, half of what came in Blue Owl, Blackstone, BlackRock, JP Morgan, Cliffwater... so what's going on?
Private credit funds limit withdrawals because their assets private loans are illiquid and rarely traded. When redemption requests rise, managers must either sell assets at discounted prices or cap withdrawals; most choose caps to protect remaining investors. Semi-liquid funds therefore offer higher yields but reduced liquidity, especially during market stress. Source: Barchart
The history of WTI Crude oil geopolitical spikes
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Leverage Shares
This chart keeps deteriorating.
The major private equity houses have had their stock prices collectively lopped by more than a third, yet the S&P 500 sits 3% below record highs. Disconcerting. Source: Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree Afficher la traduction
What part of the credit cycle is this ?
Source: Citrini
