U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ARE HITTING KEY LEVELS
While the S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high of 7,501, the bond market is pricing in higher interest rates for longer. The 30 year yield is at 5.085%. The 20 year is at 5.092%. The 10 year is at 4.538%. Every maturity is rising at the same time. Stocks are at all time highs because the AI boom is driving earnings and the market is pricing in years of continued growth. Bond yields do not care about AI. They care about a $2 trillion annual deficit, oil at $100, persistent inflation and a government borrowing more money every single day to fund a war. Can the equity markets bull run if bond yields keep rising? What's your take? Source: Bull Theory
Yields on 10y gilts have risen well above 5%, reaching their highest level since 2008 due to the UK government crisis.
Keir Starmer's premiership appears to be hanging by a thread after his much-anticipated policy reset speech on Monday - in response to the Labour Party's poor performance in recent local elections - failed to deliver the shift many MPs demanded. Starmer said on Tuesday that he wasn't going anywhere, but with calls for his departure mounting, he looks to be fighting a losing battle. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
India hikes bullion import duties as the world’s second-largest gold market faces a declining rupee.
India has increased import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% (including basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure Cess), significantly raising domestic prices by roughly ₹12–13 lakh per kg for gold and ₹24,000–25,000 per kg for silver. The move is aimed at curbing a sharply rising import bill, with gold imports reaching a record $71.98 billion in FY26 and silver imports surging 162%, amid broader macro pressures such as higher crude prices, a weaker rupee, and geopolitical uncertainty. Authorities expect a potential 15–20% reduction in imports, saving $10–15 billion in foreign exchange outflows, though past patterns suggest possible offsets through smuggling, unofficial premiums, and higher recycling. The policy may also be part of a broader effort to shift household wealth away from physical gold holdings toward financial assets, but it remains unclear whether this is a temporary measure or a structural shift. Source: CR
Trump just confirmed that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is traveling with him to China aboard Air Force One.
According to TruthSocial, a potential US–China semiconductor deal is being discussed around a high-level tech summit involving major industry figures, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s late inclusion seen as a signal that advanced chip sales (especially H200 chips) could be on the agenda. The Trump administration has already outlined a conditional framework for allowing some China-bound chip exports, and broader comments suggest market access is part of negotiations. However, political resistance from China hawks, pending legislation to review chip exports, and analyst skepticism make a full breakthrough unlikely. The most probable outcome is limited, conditional progress rather than a broad deal. Source: TruthSocial
China will go from being almost completely reliant on chips from external sources to almost completely self-sufficient in just ten years - per MS
Source: David Ingles
Japan's 20Y bond yield rises as high as 3.511%, highest since 1996 as global interest rates go vertical
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
How does the sp500 perform when the US 10 year yield crosses key levels?
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
Renaissance Technologies filed their Q4 2025 holdings with the SEC in February.
This is the fund built by Jim Simons, a mathematician who beat Wall Street for 40 years using pure math and zero emotion. Their Medallion Fund averaged 66% annual returns before fees for over 20 years. The best track record in the history of investing. Here's what they were holding at December 31, 2025, and what those positions are worth today. MU – held $859M worth at ~$186/share. Now ~$768. Up 312%. BE – held $22.6M worth at ~$87/share. Now ~$287. Up 230%. AMD – held $267M worth at ~$211/share. Now ~$455. Up 116%. Source: The Assembly
