Last chance to buy nvidia $NVDA at a sub-20 forward PE ?
Source: Matt Cerminaro, TME
If you invested $1,000,000 in this company a year ago, Today you would have nearly $6,000.
A Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto $NAKA crashed -99.30% in less than a year from its peak market cap of $24 billion to just $180 million erasing $23.3B in value. They company came under fire after the filing revealed that they just sold $20M worth of BTC at $70K which they bought at an average buying price of $118K, booking a -40% loss. The core issue is simple. Bitcoin is trading far below their cost basis, so the value of their treasury is shrinking while liabilities remain fixed. At the same time, the stock has collapsed below $1 for 30+ consecutive days, which directly triggers Nasdaq non compliance. If this is not fixed, the stock is expected to be delisted by 8 June 2026. Once delisted: liquidity drops → institutional access reduces → raising capital becomes extremely difficult. Source: Bull Theory
The United Arab Emirates is now planning to open the Strait of Hormuz BY FORCE with OTHER allies, after President Trump said "fend for yourselves!"
WSJ
Oil is up 70% in five weeks. The last time crude moved this violently was 2020. Back then the problem was too much supply. Now it's the opposite.
Source: Maxence Visseau - Arkevium Capital & Arkevium Research
Kind of mind-boggling.
Source: Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts
Global stocks lost $12 trillion in March, the single-largest value wipeout on record in a single month
(≠ to worst month on record; that's still Oct 2008, just that now the market is much much bigger) Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles @DavidInglesTV
Markets are rallying on the news that Trump said expects the U.S. military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”
Still, it is difficult to say if this is the start of the true TACO trade. Indeed, it looks more like a brutal short squeeze. Over the last 2 weeks positioning has flipped rapidly. What began as a measured de-risking has accelerated into a full systematic unwind, with flows, gamma, and liquidity all reinforcing each other in the same direction. When positioning resets this aggressively, it rarely resolves cleanly. The next move is often dictated more by market mechanics than by fundamentals. And this is what took place yesterday. CTAs have swung from heavily long to decisively short in a very short time. Goldman Sachs estimates roughly $184bn of global equities have been sold over the past month, pushing positioning to a net short of around $47bn—approaching levels last seen during peak “Liberation Day” stress. Their projections suggest that upside now represents the largest convexity risk. We’ve seen this pattern before: sharp CTA reversals tend to be followed by meaningful market rebounds. From a geopolitical, macro and fundamentals perspectives, there are still many unknows: 1/ if the US leaves the region in 2 weeks, who will tale care of the Strait of Hormuz ? 2/ What will be the impacts on GDP and inflation? 3/ Will companies come with weaker guidance during Q1 reporting season? Source: GS, TME
In considering Tuesday's rally, don't forget that the quarter-end pension rebalance was estimated by Goldman at $34bn, the 8th largest since 2000 and a top 10 buy imbalance in history.
$34bn to buy in equities ranks in the 94th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years and in the 96th percentile going back to Jan 2000. Source: Neil Sethi on X, Goldman Sachs
