$4400 on gold: this support MUST hold
Gold has continued its huge consolidation phase following the violent pukes we saw earlier this year. The shorter-term trend line has survived several tests, but we are now approaching the major $4400 level, with the 200 day moving average coming in just below. That is the must hold area. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Trump's stock portfolio:
Source: Stocks World
The momentum trade is VERY extended.
See below great chart from Alpine Macro showing that Momentum stocks (dominated by semis) have basically had a vertical rally relative to minimum volatility stocks (think defensives like staples, utilities). Markets don’t like big straight-line moves like that. It’s not something that persists. Source: TME
Why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet again (QE)?
The stock market is at an all-time high. Credit spreads are near all-time lows. And inflation has been above the Fed's target level for 62 consecutive months, averaging over 4% per year since 2019. So why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet again (QE)? Source: Charlie Bilello
Which company will ultimately benefit the most from Trump's trip to China?
Source: TrendSpider
Another day, another new high for JGBs yields... Countdown to more BOJ QE as JGBs go bidless.
Source: zerohedge
Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.
August of 2024 the market was expecting 10 cuts… Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Nvidia H200 cloud Tensor Core GPUs pricing has gone vertical, up 56% in just three days.
What stands out is that H200 pricing is now trading above the B200, despite the B200 being the more capable GPU. In a thin and illiquid market, it’s entirely plausible that a fund (hedge fund ?) could push up supply pricing at a cost of ~$50K per day to influence short-term moves in far more liquid AI-related equities. Source: Brandon Carl
