Market action in fixedincome wasn't great yesterday.
Treasuries (upper chart) were a bloodbath yesterday with yields up 5-8bps (long-end lagging, now up 10bps on the week)... High Yield OAS spreads (lower chart) have begun to widen (credit underperformed stocks yesterday) Something to keep a very close eye on. Source: zerohedge
The most dangerous weapon at sea is not a missile, submarine, or aircraft carrier.
Naval mines cheap, hard to detect, and highly effective are a major threat to shipping, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Types include drifting, contact, moored, influence, bottom, self-burying, and rising torpedo mines. Even a few mines can disrupt global trade by making critical sea routes too dangerous for vessels to cross. Source: Rand Group on X
Glendon Capital warned that some private credit funds
especially those managed by Blue Owl Capital—may overvalue loans relative to market prices. For example, junior debt of Cornerstone OnDemand was valued near 90¢ while its senior debt traded around 78¢. Similar gaps appear for Barracuda Networks, Peraton, and Conair Holdings, suggesting possible future write-downs as stress grows in private credit markets. Source: FT
WAR AND EQUITY MARKETS - THE LONG VIEW
Source: Charlie Biello
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Returns since the start of the conflict
Source: Trend Spider
Energy sector up 25% YTD. Everything else red.
One sector carrying the market isn't a rotation. It's a warning. Source: Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport
The effect of fiat money system on inflation
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
