Is inflation in the US reaccelerating?
The 3-month annualized core PPI inflation rose to 5.0% in June, its highest since 2022. This metric has more than DOUBLED in just 6 months. This is also higher than in any period over the last 15 years, except for 2021 and 2022. Something to watch closely. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
JUST IN: Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession.
This is the worst day for stocks since March 16, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic fears. Source: Jacob King, Bloomberg
Are markets now pricing in a Kamala victory?
Source: PredictIt
Should the FED wait for a financial accident to happen BEFORE cutting interest rates?
Source chart: Mac10
As highlighted by Otavio (Tavi) Costa, the need for the FED to cut interest rates is not driven just by labor data and inflation.
As shown on the chart below, the costs of servicing Federal debt in the US is soaring more than in any other country. Not just once, not twice, or even three times — multiple rate cuts would be needed to bring US interest payments as a percentage of GDP in line with the rest of the world. This is what financial repression is about. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The recessionary trade was in full effect yesterday following weak ISM data.
Cyclicals underperformed Defensives by 429bps, one of the worst days in the last 16+ years. The only other comparable days were during the March 2020 Covid crash and 2008 GFC. $SPY $QQQ $IWM Source: David Marlin, Bloomberg
Almost all Japanese stock gains for 2024 wiped out in 3 days...
Today was an absolute chaos in Japan as stocks plummeted more than 6%, the largest decline in 8 years, and experienced 2 circuit breakers during the session... What will the BOJ save first? The Yen, Japanese stocks or the JGBs (of which they already own 50%)? Source: www.zerohedge.com
Amazon reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the second quarter on Thursday and issued a disappointing forecast for the current period.
The shares slid as much as 6% in extended trading. Here's how $AMZN Amazon did in Q2 FY24: • Revenue +10% Y/Y to $148B ($0.8B miss). • Operating margin 10% (+4pp Y/Y). • FCF $53B TTM. ☁️ AWS: • Revenue +19% Y/Y to $26.3B. • Operating margin 36% (+11pp Y/Y). Q3 FY24 Guidance: • Revenue ~$154-$158.5B ($158.3B expected).
