Syz the moment

S&P Performance from November through April in Mid to Pre-election Years. Source: waynewhaley

Cross-assets chart of the day: real estate (Dow Jones US REIT index) expressed in commodity prices ($REIT:$CRB). Will the asset rotation last? Source: Tuur Demeester

Energy stocks continue to significantly disconnect from the rest of the market. Let’s not forget: - At 11% FCF yield, the overall sector remains cheap; - It remains a low weight in main benchmarks and is underinvested by most fund managers; - While the sector is not ESG friendly, many Oil majors are now becoming more responsible and are investing into Renewables. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

It‘s a huge difference if someone buys property with 0,8% or 4% mortgage just one year later.. Yields of German mortgage-backed securities (so-called Pfandbrief) have risen to highest level since 2011. Consumers have to pay almost 4% for 10y mortgage loans, 4 times as much as at the start of the year. Volume of mortgage loans has slumped 16% YoY. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

UK market borrowing costs coming back up. 30 year Gilt yields now only 52 basis points off post Mini Budget panic peak. 10 year Gilt yields only 19 basis points off... Issues remain 1) Treasury has huge borrowing needs next few years 2) BOE about to start QT (selling gilts on Oct 31st) 3) LDI (Liability driven investments) funds are underwater on highly volatile assets. Quite a few "too big to fail" institutions are heavily exposed to UK Bonds and Gilts Source: Ben Chu

The iShares 20+Year Treasury #etf ($TLT) is now trading below $100. This is a -41% drawdown from 2020 peak. This ETF used to be the favorite diversifier in the pre-2021 world. Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv

Despite (or thanks to) recent dislocations in financial markets, the private markets industry is set to grow at a 12% CAGR, to $17tr AUM by 2026. UHNWI and HNWI are way behind endowments and Sovereign Wealth Funds in terms of allocation to private markets.