Speculators have built their largest short U.S. Dollar position since 2020 and one of the largest in history
Source: barchart
Wondering by us bank stocks are doing well?
Since the introduction of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in March, there is a nice arbitrage opportunity for banks - watch out on the chart below the gap between the rate on the Federal Reserve’s nascent funding facility and what the central bank pays institutions parking reserves. Since March / SVB crisis, the BTFP-Fed Arb continues to offer 'free-money' to banks - and usage of the BTFP has risen by $38BN since the arb started to exist. Source: Bloomberg. www.zerohedge.com
HOLDRs have been nicely rewarded over the last few years
Source Table: Dan Held
The last 4 times the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield Curve inverted, it led to the 1990s recession, the Dotcom Bust, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Recession.
Will this time be different? 🤔 Source: Barchart
Uranium 16-Year High: Uranium going parabolic as it hits its highest price since November 2007
Source: barchart
Surprise, surprise... Even with a hot jobs report and inflation rising to 3.4%, market expectations regarding timing and number of rate cuts have shifted more dovish.
Markets are now pricing-in a rate cut at EVERY Fed meeting this year beginning in March 2024 until December 2024. Effectively, markets are saying that us interestrates will move in a straight-line lower. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Less and less Americans are getting married.
This is negatively impacting family formation and leading to a slower population growth rate as a result. Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
What are the key takeaways from DAY 1 of bitcoin spot etf?
- The first US ETFs that directly hold Bitcoin are off to a strong start, with billions of dollars changing hands in a historical first day of trading for the long-sought investment vehicles. - The Blackrock iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT) has passed $1B in volume today - The whole group hit $4.3B in volume or $2.2B ex-GBTC - 4 issuers are ABOVE $100B volume - The Bitcoin futures ETF $BITO smashed it's all time volume record in this historic day with $2b traded.. perhaps some is redemptions but it is probable that $BITO's liquidity will serve purpose in market maker for a while - $BITO and $GBTC are both in the Top 10 among overall ETFs in trading volume today.. $IBIT and $FBTC also making in Top 25, just to give some context on how this volume fits in w bigger picture. Just overall superb showing. Remember the futures ETFs barely did $2m - As a side note, $7.7 trillion asset manager Vanguard says they will NOT offer spot Bitcoin ETF.
