Apollo just doubled down on their view that we are in a bigger bubble than the 2000 Dot-com bubble.
3 weeks ago, they said the current bubble is "bigger than the 1990s tech bubble." They note that the Forward P/E ratio for the top 10 tech stocks right now is ~40x. Compared to 2000, at the peak of the Dot-com bubble, the Forward P/E on the top 10 tech stocks was ~26x. Now, Apollo says that ~30% of stocks have a P/E ratio of 30x or more. Overall, Apollo says that P/E ratios now are much higher than they were in 2000. What's next for AI hype? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Food for Thoughts
Source: RAYDALIO
Store of Value
Source: CNBC
Central banks demand matters a lot more than ETF flows for gold
Source: Bob Elliott, Bloomberg, Macrobond, The Daily Shot
The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz.
Many are criticizing the "Plan B" methodology which attempt to forecast bitcoin $BTC future trajectory.
The current price ($73k) continues to follow the pattern. Like clockwork... As a reminder, "Plan B", a Dutch institutional investor, has tried to predict the theoretical value of bitcoin over time. This quantitative model, which is based on asset scarcity, was published on March 22, 2019. Called "Stock-to-flow," the model predicted a rapid rise in bitcoin's value to $55,000 once the May 2020 halving occurred. It then predicts Bitcoin to hit $100k in 2024, $500k in 2025. At the time of Plan B’s first publication, bitcoin was trading below $5,000. Source: PlanB @100trillionUSD
WARNING: Reverse Repo is falling off a cliff.
And has declined from more than $2500 billion to less than $500 billion since 2023. Source: Game of Trades
Disinflationary forces continue in Germany.
Wholesales Prices drop 0.1% MoM in Feb after +0.1% MoM in Jan, plunge 3% YoY which is a good leading indicator for German food price CPI. Sources: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
