While many economists and financial analysts look at the 1970s as a potential playbook for the current decade, the 1940s could be an interesting reference to consider as well
The 40s was a decade of war and high budget deficit and rising debt level in the US. Monetary policy was mainly about financial repression, i.e keeping rates low despite temporarily high inflation. Overall, it was positive for risk assets. Source: Win Smart, FRED
German inflation has accelerated again, at least the headline rate
CPI rose to 3.7% in December from 3.2% in November due to base effect. But Core CPI has fallen further to 3.5% in Dec from 3.8% in November. This means that core inflation is once again below headline inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
China’s central bank assets have surged by nearly $600B in the last 4 months
In yuan terms, this was the largest 4-month increase in the history of the data. The issue of a bloated government deficit and significant debt is not exclusive to the US; it resonates globally. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Mark Zuckerberg sold nearly half a billion dollars of Meta shares in the final two months of 2023 after a 2y hiatus in which the company’s stock price hit its lowest in seven years
The Meta CEO sold shares on every trading day between Nov. 1 and the end of the year, unloading nearly 1.28mln shares for ~$428mln. On average, each sale took in $10.4mln. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
How the economy works... An over-simplistic but accurate chart
Source: Markets & Mayhem
The Druckenmiller Recession indicator continues to plummet
Source: Win Smart, TS Lombard
GLOBAL WAGES
Source: Win Smart, Genuine Impact and The Daily Shot
Luxury watch prices in the secondary market have collapsed
In less than 2 years, the price has declined by more than 35% WatchCharts Market Index tracks secondary watch market price trends It consists of 60 watches from the top 10 luxury watch brands, which are sorted and weighted by transaction value The index tracks the price movement of these watches in USD over time And is rebalanced every year on 1st Jan. Source: Game of Trades
