Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted sharply lower after weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
Investors are now pricing in 62bps of rate cuts for the rest of the year, up from ~35bps before the report. The probability of a rate cut at Sep17 meeting has jumped to 92%. Source: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
Berkshire Reaching Major Support Zone
Berkshire Hathaway has consolidated more than 15% since the May highs and is now approaching the major swing support zone between 440-456. Keep an eye on the price action over the next few days for potential developments. Source: Bloomberg
🚨: China bans cryptocurrency for the 1000th time 👻😱🫂
Source: Barchart
The german stockmarket’s brief comeback (as a percentage of world's market cap) appears to be over – at least for now.
The surge in US big tech stocks, the underperformance of German equities, and a weakening Euro have pushed Germany’s share of global stock market capitalization down to 2.2%, from 2.4% in May. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history.
Source: Barchart
In the us, leverage is with the government, and less with companies and households.
Indeed, household debt outstanding as a share of US GDP is down over the past decade. Lowest since 2002. Source: BofA
Market expectations for rate cuts this year have been quite volatile
We could gain more clarity on this at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21-23), or soon thereafter. Source: Bloomberg. Mo El Erian
It is all about tech...
US technology and tech-related stocks now account for ~55% of the US stock market, the highest share EVER. It has exceeded the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble levels by ~5 percentage points. By comparison, defensive stocks now reflect ~18% of the market. Source: Global Markets Investor
