Ares Restricts Withdrawals Amid Private Credit Surge
Ares Management capped withdrawals at 5% from its $10.7B private credit fund after $1.2B in redemption requests, fulfilling only ~$524M. The fund still grew due to $708M in new commitments, but liquidity stress is rising across the $2T private credit market, with $13B requested this quarter and $4.6B unmet. Concerns over loan quality, slower PE exits, and aging LBOs are driving investor caution. Despite this, Ares reports a healthy portfolio and ~$5B liquidity, highlighting opportunity for long-term holders. Source: Financial Times
Trump Proposes 1-Month Ceasefire with Iran
Former President Donald Trump proposed a 15-point deal offering Iran major sanctions relief, civilian nuclear support, and reintegration into the global economy in exchange for dismantling its nuclear program, cutting ties with proxies, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The framework mirrors a pre-war offer, but Iran’s new leadership demands reparations. Key obstacles remain: Iran won’t fully halt enrichment, Trump rejects reparations, and ongoing regional military actions complicate the agreement’s implementation. Source: WSJ, Mario Nawfal, Jack Prandelli
SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyds List, PIB India, and regional briefings.
Same setup, different story. $GLD $XLE
Source: Trend Spider
Is the petrodollar era starting to erode?
A Deutsche Bank report questions the future of the petrodollar system, where oil trade in USD underpins global demand for the currency. Emerging shifts Middle Eastern oil flowing to Asia, countries like Russia and Iran trading outside the dollar, and Saudi Arabia considering alternatives are increasing pressure. Geopolitical tensions and risks to Gulf supply routes could accelerate change. Combined with the rise of renewables and energy independence, a gradual decline in USD dominance may reshape global financial power.Source: ZeroHedge, Deutsche Bank
Why the West Remains Calm
Goldman Sachs explains that despite a sharp drop of 270 million barrels in global oil shipments within three weeks, Western economies remain stable. High oil inventories across OECD Europe and the Americas cushion any supply shock, preventing immediate disruption. This insulation allows major U.S. oil companies to achieve exceptional profitability even as global supply tightens. Consequently, the West is not protected but may benefit from current conditions, raising questions about who advantages from ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Qasem Al-Ali (@AlaliQasem)
Dow Chemical just doubled their polyethylene price increase, from $0.15/lb to $0.30/lb, effective April 1st. That's roughly a 60% price hike on the most widely used plastic on Earth.
LyondellBasell has gone even further, $0.35/lb in cumulative increases through May. Polyethylene is in your packaging, your water bottles, your grocery bags, your construction materials, your medical supplies. About 50% of global production capacity is now either offline or feedstock-constrained because of the Hormuz crisis. This is how a war in the Middle East shows up at your grocery store. Energy costs don't stay in the energy sector. They flow through everything you buy. Source: TFTC @TFTC21
The Philippines has become the first country to declare a national energy emergency amid the Iran conflict
with just 45 days of fuel reserves remaining. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order 110, warning of an “imminent danger” to the country’s energy supply. The order, in effect for one year, allows the government to directly procure fuel, enforce rationing, and control distribution of essentials like food and medicine. The vulnerability is stark. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf. Its top suppliers—Saudi Arabia ($1.79B), the UAE ($1.22B), and Iraq ($474M)—are all directly affected by the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, these supply routes are under severe strain, and Saudi exports to Asia have already been cut for a second straight month. Domestically, the country produces just 14,300 barrels per day but consumes around 474,000—a massive 97% shortfall. This is what a global energy shock looks like in real time. Source: TFTC
