The dream of China surpassing the U.S. as the world’s largest economy is fading.
In 2021, China’s GDP was about 78% of the U.S.; by 2024, that share had fallen to roughly 64%, back to around 2017 levels, with the gap between the two economies doubling in just a few years. Note that we are talking about NOMINAL GDP. Over the last few years, the US has been generating inflation while China has been facing deflation or low inflation. This matters when you consider nominal GDP growth. Source: Terence Shen
An interesting Wall Street Journal story highlights the UAE’s request for a dollar swap line.
While the UAE has yet to report its end-March reserves, it entered the current situation with substantial reserves and significant holdings of liquid U.S. assets. Given the central bank’s apparent liquidity, the vast resources of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, and the country’s clear ability to borrow in dollars, it seems unlikely that the UAE would face a genuine dollar shortage. Source: Brad Setser
The World soared to its highest level of uncertainty in history last year, surpassing Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble 👻🤯👀
Source: Barchart
Semiconductor stocks now represent a RECORD 13% of the total US stock market cap.
This share has more than QUADRUPLED over the last 4 years. The percentage is nearly TWICE as high as during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. Meanwhile, the Semiconductor ETFs, $SOXX, and $SMH are up 33% and 24% year-to-date, respectively. Source: Global Markets Investor, Topdown Charts, LSEG
Hedge funds were caught offside by the US stock market rally:
The US hedge fund long/short ratio has fallen below 2.0, even lower than during the 2025 April sell-off. This is despite equities trading near record highs. This comes as last week saw the largest net sales by hedge funds year-to-date, driven by long sales concentrated in US Tech Hardware and short additions focused on US Software. By comparison, the ratio was as high as 2.5 in December last year. Furthermore, retail investors recorded their largest weekly outflows year-to-date, driven by semiconductors, according to UBS. Source: UBS, Global Markets Investor
US Treasury just did the largest Treasury buyback in HISTORY.
Treasury bought back $15,000,000,000 of its own debt to improve liquidity. Source: Bull Theory
Michael Burry just called the bottom on software stocks
He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack. His recent purchases: • PayPal $PYPL • Fiserv $FISV • Adobe $ADBE • Autodesk $ADSK • Veeva $VEEV Source: Michael Burry Stock Tracker
The Nasdaq-100 is up 12 days in a row - something it hasn't done since July 2017...and has only surpassed this length of win-streak, four times in its history...
Source: zerohedge
