The futures market is now pricing just under one Fed rate hike by year-end
Source: Hedgeye, Bloomberg
Anthropic is now projected to IPO by October 31st
Source: Stocktwits, Polymarket
Hyperscaler net stock flow
Source: zerohedge
CPI software +21.2% y/y in July
Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon on X Bloomberg
SpaceXAI just dropped Grok 4.6, and it just matched the absolute frontier - Claude Fable 5 Max & GPT-5.6 Sol Max - while being ~80% cheaper
According to Arena.ai @arena, this release by @SpaceXAI just landed in the Code Arena: WebDev at #7 with 1618 pts. Grok 4.6 (High) is a big jump from Grok 4.5, which sits at #13 with 1553 pts. It's now on par with GPT-5.6 Sol xHigh (1622 pts) and Claude Fable 5 (1627 pts). This is especially impressive once you remember that OpenAI and Anthropic already had multi-year leads when Grok launched in 2023. Yet, they’ve closed the gap in under 3 years through pure execution speed and focus. Never bet against Elon. Source: Linas Belunas, Arena.ai All three currently land in the #5-7 rank range with only 4-9 pts of separation. Expect the picture to sharpen as more votes roll in and CIs tighten.
Nebius surged +34% yesterday and +77% in just 14 days.
The reversal began right after Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund was forced to liquidate its position. $NBIS was one of his largest holdings before Citadel took over the portfolio. Source: Bull Theory
Yesterday, the 10-Year Treasury Note Auction drew an interest rate of 4.683%, the highest since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis
Source: Barchart
Gold demand in Asia remains exceptionally strong.
Asian gold ETF holdings have more than doubled over the past year, surpassing 500 tonnes for the first time this century, with China driving much of the surge. By contrast, gold ETF holdings in North America and Europe have remained broadly stable. And the macro backdrop supporting gold has barely changed: Government debt remains historically high Fiscal deficits remain elevated Non-bank credit continues to expand Leverage across the financial system remains substantial In other words, the structural case for gold remains firmly intact. What is changing is investor demand. Asian investors, particularly in China, are accumulating gold at an accelerating pace. And when structural macro support meets rising investment demand, the adjustment ultimately has to come through one place: The price of gold. Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor
