The IMF's growth forecasts are out.
Qatar seems to be the worst hit from the Middle East War, with recovery set for 2027. Source: Statista
S&P 500 $SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting.
What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
A legend just passes away.
Mark Mobius put emerging markets on investors' radar with on-the-ground insights. I had the privilege to meet him. He was a true gentleman and a source of inspiration for generations of investors.
China’s economy gathered steam in the first quarter
Robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption, though an energy shock stemming from the Iran war threatens to sap global demand and undercut that momentum. ➡️ Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. ➡️ Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier. ➡️ China’s retail sales grew 1.7% in March from a year earlier. Industrial output expanded 5.7%. ➡️ The urban survey-based unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, picking up from 5.3% in February. In the first quarter, China’s exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI. That said, that growth has stalled as the Middle East conflict rages on. As the world’s largest oil importer and a heavily export-reliant economy, China is vulnerable to an oil shock that’s already slowing trade, pushing up factory costs, and darkening the outlook for the rest of the year. Source: CNBC
Oil flows from the Gulf
"Estimated oil flows from the Gulf (including pipeline redirections) increased to 10.4mb/d or 45% of normal on higher Yanbu exports as Saudi East-West pipeline full pumping capacity was restored within 4 days after the damage." Source: Goldman, zerohedge
HUGE: The US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of oil per day last week amid the Iran War.
Source: Bloomberg
China's oil supply pre-war:
29% Other Middle East, Hormuz blocked 26% Rest of world , scrambling 20% Russia, back to sanction as US just confirmed 14% Saudi Arabia , 700K bpd offline 11% Iran, blockaded⚠️ That's 54% of China's oil either blocked, sanctioned or disrupted. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
“Brazil: the new gold”
Source: BofA
