Syz the moment

Source: Bloomberg, Mo El Erian

Iran's oil exports spiked to ~4.5 million barrels on March 17, more than DOUBLE the 2025 average of ~2.2 million barrels per day. The surge came after exports nearly collapsed to zero on March 14 and 16, following US and Israeli military strikes near the Kharg Island export terminal. Iran is reportedly rushing to load as many tankers as possible when conditions allow, funnelling the revenue to fund military operations and keep the economy running. Iranian tankers continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, unlike many other vessels that remain blocked, particularly those from US-allied nations. Iran is exporting oil in bursts whenever it can. Source: Global Markets, Goldman Sachs

The move lower hasn’t been a panic, it’s been a grind, the type of price action that slowly bleeds positioning rather than flushing it. We’re now below the 200-day, but without any real urgency in the tape. 6600 (futures) remains the line in the sand. Below 6600 → downside accelerates. Hold it → range survives. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG

Governments will step in as energy prices surge. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: 👉 Many of these same governments helped create the crisis 👉 By weakening their own energy security 💸 Now comes the real problem: Most European countries are already running structural deficits. They don’t have the fiscal room to absorb another shock. So what happens next? ➡️ Subsidies go up ➡️ Deficits widen ➡️ Policymakers panic And then the “solution” kicks in: 👉 Higher taxes 🧠 Think about the loop: • Governments subsidise households • Then raise taxes to fund it ➡️ Households end up paying for their own “relief” (with a bit of redistribution in between) 🔁 And this doesn’t stop here. The same cycle is playing out across: • Healthcare costs • Welfare expansion • Defence spending ⏳ Until the next crisis hits. And when it does, you’ll hear the same line again: “We must stabilise the economy.” 💥 Which really means: • Deficits explode • Debt issuance surges • Central banks step in 👉 Printing money 👉 Buying bonds 👉 Repeating the cycle 📌 Once you see the system, you can’t unsee it: It’s a loop of: Crisis → Spending → Debt → Money printing → Repeat ⚠️ Now here’s the part most people ignore: If your wealth is tied to assets that: • Don’t generate real returns • Can’t be moved easily • Are fully exposed to domestic policy 👉 You are far more vulnerable than you think (Yes, that includes a lot of real estate) 🧠 The uncomfortable conclusion: This isn’t about one crisis. It’s about a system. And if your portfolio isn’t positioned for it… 👉 It’s probably mispriced for reality Source: Financial Times

Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB

Source: BofA, RBC

Source: Bloomberg

The long-term trend remains bullish. Since May 2025, BYD has gone through a 44% consolidation, and the structure is getting very interesting. As shown on the chart, price has formed 13 consecutive inside bars, all within the February 2025 power bar candle. This consolidation has also respected the 88.66 low, which is a key level. What makes this even more significant is that the February 2025 candle was also the breakout from a 4-year sideways consolidation. Now, on the daily chart, we are starting to see a breakout as well — a potentially strong continuation signal 📈 Definitely one to keep on the watchlist. Source: Bloomberg