🚨 The Cass Freight Index just fell to 2009 crisis levels — should we worry?
Freight doesn’t care about narratives, headlines, or vibes. If shipments collapse, the real economy is hurting. Period. We’re now 3 years into a freight recession, and the index is still down 7%+ YoY. That means the actual movement of goods — the stuff that reflects real production and real demand — has stalled out. Here’s what’s driving the downturn: Consumer spending shifted from goods → services after the pandemic Retailers are still clearing the bloated inventories from 2021–2022 Manufacturing has been contracting for 8 straight months Tariff uncertainty is freezing new orders Trucking added too much capacity during the pandemic, and now rates are too low for carriers to survive A recovery will come… but only after: - Excess trucking capacity clears - Inventories normalize - Manufacturing turns back up The big takeaway: The freight collapse is telling us the goods recession is real — even if the stock market looks unstoppable. Source: Election wizard on X, StockMarket.news, AUgur Infinity
Bitcoin – Next Support Levels
Bitcoin has consolidated 26% since the October highs! Now trading in the discount zone (below the 50% Fibonacci retracement). 👉 Key levels to watch: Imbalance zone: 86'450 – 92'850 Major swing support: 74'424 – 82'531 ⚠️ Critical level that must hold: 74'424 Now it’s all about looking at price action in these key areas. Source: Bloomberg
Gold stocks broke out of a major consolidation.
Copper miners followed with almost the same pattern. Are energy equities next? Source: Tavi Costa
Mom, can you come pick me up?
I'm scared. Source: Trend Spider
🔥 OpenAI’s “Go Big or Go Bust” Strategy Just Went Public — and the numbers are insane.
According to leaked financials, OpenAI is preparing to lose $74B in 2028 alone — yes, one year — before expecting to swing to real profitability by 2030. What about this year? $13B in revenue $9B in cash burn A burn rate of ~70% of revenue ‼️ And it only gets wilder: OpenAI expects three-quarters of its 2028 revenue to be wiped out by operating losses. Meanwhile, competitor Anthropic expects to break even in 2028. OpenAI expects to burn $115B cumulatively through 2029. OpenAI’s commitments: Up to $1.4T over 8 years for compute deals Nearly $100B on backup data-center capacity Aiming for $200B in revenue by 2030 (a 15x jump from today) 💡 The read-through: This is the biggest strategic divergence in AI right now: Anthropic = disciplined scaling OpenAI = moonshot economics OpenAI is effectively saying: “We’ll lose tens of billions now to own the entire future later.” But there’s a catch: 95% of businesses still get zero real value from AI today. And OpenAI is funding its hyperscale buildout not from revenue (like AWS did), but from debt, investors, and chip-supplier deals — while losing money on every ChatGPT interaction. This ends one of two ways: 🚀 The most valuable company in history 💥 Or a case study in overestimating demand There’s no middle lane when you’re burning cash faster than any startup in history... Source: hedgie on X
Bitcoin's weekly RSI is at its most oversold level since the April bottom, the end of last summer's 'chopsolidation', and the end of the last bear market.
Source: Joe Consorti @JoeConsorti
Yesterday: Michael Burry shutting down hedge fund
April 7: Tom Lee issues apology to investors Signs of time? 🤔 Source: The Market Stats @TheMarketStats
It seems that Michael Burry closing his fund DOES NOT mean he is done
He is planning something massive on Nov 25th...
