Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
The euro has sold off aggressively in the wake of the Iran war.
We briefly bounced at the range lows, but the move has been weak and lacks follow-through. Now sitting well below the 200-day moving average, with the 21-day crossing lower, a bearish shift in trend dynamics. Last time this setup played out, the euro didn’t stabilize, it continued the move lower. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Private Credit Faces Early-Year Withdrawal Pressure
In Q1, wealthy investors requested over $10B from major private credit funds. Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are limiting withdrawals to ~70%. Apollo, Ares, and Goldman Sachs will report soon. Though small relative to $1.5T in direct lending, private credit’s fast growth and $9T U.S. retirement exposure mean liquidity strains could test the model’s foundations. Temporary squeeze or early warning? Source: FT
Nice infographic on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.
Source: S&P Global
With buybacks stepping away, downside moves become more exposed.
McCullen: "We are expecting the next blackout window to begin this week ~3/18, estimating ~45% of the S&P 500 to be in blackout by that point, assuming entry 6 weeks prior to earnings ... We expect blackout to run through the end of April." Source: TME
Oil-equity correlations break during oil supply shocks
Source: zerohedge JP Morgan
