Inverse Panic !
S&P500 $SPX is not far from range highs post the epic squeeze. SPX futures are nearing the 7k level, with range highs just above. Downside panic has flipped into upside chasing, while vols have reset to pre-war levels. Chart 2 (SPX vs. VIX, inverted) shows the gap has narrowed materially from peak panic. Source: TME
Trump's 7 steps maximum pressure
Source: Marko Papic
Rearmament has increased globally.
It is not going to decelerate any time soon... Source: The Daily Shot
The Strait of Hormuz is blockaded. Europe's plan?
Ursula von der Leyen: "The cheapest energy is the one you don't use." Stay home, don't drive, don't use electricity. Source: Wall Street Mav
Have you heard about the Guns N' Roses trade?
Source: BofA
Oil and US dollar strength move in tandem, which could mitigate inflationary pressures on import prices for America.
US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies. Source: Daniel Lacalle on X, Bloomberg
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
