The Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator measuring market and economic sentiment hit 73% 🚀
One of the largest readings in history. As you can see, this is in line with the previous peaks that occurred before bear markets in 1999, 2007, and 2020. The index uses US stock market valuations, government bonds yield curve, unemployment, inflation, and other economic metrics. ➡️ It simply means that the sentiment has rarely been this euphoric before. Source: Global Markets Investor, GS
Germany will hold a snap national election on February 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition.
Currently, the CDU/CSU leads in Reuters polling aggregate by 8 points over the AfD. The far-right AfD has gained 4.6 points since June 2024. The SPD, the current leaders in the national parliament, have lost 12.1 points since the last federal election, and are currently in third place. Germany has two centrist, “big-tent” parties: Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Both have lost support in recent years, with smaller parties such as the Greens and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining ground. The SPD, conservatives, Greens and AfD are all fielding candidates for chancellor. Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls. Source: Reuters
Goldman Raises MSCI China Target as DeepSeek Improves Outlook - Bloomberg
Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect a blistering rally in Chinese equities to continue, as the emergence of DeepSeek sparks optimism over the country’s technological advancements. Kinger Lau and his colleagues see the MSCI China Index reaching 85 over the next 12 months, up from their previous target of 75. That indicates another 16% rise from Friday’s close. The index has already entered a bull market earlier this month. Their target for the CSI 300 Index was raised to 4,700 from 4,600.
In Germany, a ceasefire in Ukraine would add just 0.1ppts to Germany’s economic growth
—only half the boost expected in France, Italy, or Spain, according to Goldman Sachs. The reason? Germany would face a bigger economic drag from the return of Ukrainian refugees. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average. Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels. Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC. Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000. That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period. Last week alone, claims surged +36%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
ServiceNow Reaching 1st Key Level
ServiceNow (NOW US) has consolidated 19% since its January high, but the stock remains in a bullish trend. The consolidation that started last December is now approaching the first interesting imbalance zone between 964-1004. Another level to watch is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 918. Keep an eye on these levels for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
It's been awhile since the US S&P500 $SPY has been in the bottom half of country ETF performance.
That's where it is YTD though. Europe has been flying in 2025. Source: Bespoke
Gold consecutive weekly gains
Source: Win Smart
