The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut.
A month ago, no one would have believed this. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT
The US is now one of the largest oil exporters in the world:
US crude oil and petroleum exports hit 3.9 BILLION barrels in 2025, according to the EIA. The Netherlands is the largest buyer at 419 million barrels (10.7%), serving as Europe's largest oil trading hub. Four of the top 7 importers are in Asia, with South Korea (257M), Japan (247M), China (238M), and India (221M) combining for ~24.8% of total US oil exports. Mexico (398M) and Canada (324M) round out the top 3, with North American neighbors combining for 18.5% of total volume. US oil is now flowing to virtually every corner of the globe. Source: Global Markets Investor
Over the past 75 years, the average intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 has been about 14%.
Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. Source: PeterMallouk, The Chart Report
Everyone has heard about the German carmakers' crisis.
Take a look at what's going on in its key chemical sector: production is at levels seen during the GFC, and this during good times, even before the current energy crisis. Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
February’s PPI inflation was HOTTER than expected, marking two consecutive PPI inflation reports that were WORST than expectations…
🔴 US February PPI • PPI MoM: +0.7% (est. +0.3%) • PPI YoY: +3.4% (est. +2.9%) • Core PPI MoM: +0.5% (est. +0.3%) • Core PPI YoY: +3.9% (est. +3.7%) ➡️ Inflation pressures remain above expectations. Market eyes now shift to Powell’s speech later today. Source: OnlyOptionsTrades
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz should take responsibility for securing the waterway, in a post on Truth Social.
“What if we actually FINISHED OFF what’s left of the Iranian Terror State… and let the countries that USE the Strait of Hormuz (while we don’t) be responsible for keeping it open?”
An interesting development in the Iran war.
As Trump asks for international assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are electing to negotiate with Iran directly (India, Italy, and Spain). Part of this decision may stem from the change in political preferences among allies with key relationships seeing China as a more dependable partner, per Politico. Source: zerohedge
Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf
Source: Rory Johnston
