Dollar and the oil crisis
Last time it caught strong bids and squeezed for some 6 months. A similar move would tighten financial conditions quickly. Source. TS Lombard, TME
Swiss National Bank Signals Aggressive Currency Intervention
Amid global uncertainty, the Swiss franc surges, pressuring exports and keeping inflation at 0.1%. The SNB plans aggressive intervention: selling francs and buying foreign currencies to weaken the franc. This may trigger U.S. tensions due to past manipulation accusations and tariffs. Switzerland faces a dilemma: protect its economy or avoid political backlash, highlighting how central banks now navigate inflation, geopolitics, trade wars, and market psychology. Source: CNBC
Can Silver hold 70?
Since the beginning of March, Silver is down 33% — a sharp correction that puts pressure on a key level. We are now retesting the major support at 70. The big question: can it hold like last time? On February 6th, we saw a brutal intraday washout down to 64.09 before buyers stepped in. This time, the low so far stands at 65.52 — slightly higher, but still fragile. 📍 Key level to watch: 70 A sustained hold could signal stabilization. A break below could open the door to further downside. Markets are at a decision point. Stay alert. Source : Bloomberg
This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. It’s the U.S. National Debt.
Source: Not Jerome Powell
🧠 The global oil market has split into two separate systems:
Asia: Paying very high prices (~$150+/barrel) US/West: Paying much lower prices (~$95–$105/barrel) T This as an unprecedented “broken” market driven by geopolitics, not normal supply/demand. ⚠️ Main Reasons Strait of Hormuz disruption: A major shipping route (≈20% of global oil supply) is allegedly blocked or restricted. Geopolitical tensions (Iran): Seen as the key player controlling whether supply resumes. Emergency reserves released: Large releases from global and US reserves are being used to stabilize prices. US reserves are described as historically low. 📊 Key Effects 1. Two-tier pricing system Countries with domestic oil (like the US) are better protected. Import-dependent Asian economies pay much more. 2. Economic strain in Asia High oil prices → rising costs → factories slowing or shutting down. Early signs of “demand destruction” (reduced consumption due to high prices). 3. Shrinking safety buffers Strategic oil reserves may only last weeks at current usage rates. Limited ability to replenish during conflict. 4. Rising US fuel prices Gas prices expected to increase significantly if oil rises further. 5. Inflation risk Higher energy costs could: Push inflation back up Force central banks to delay or reverse rate cuts 6. Iran’s leverage Iran is portrayed as holding decisive control over supply routes. Ongoing conflict reduces chances of quick resolution. Source: zerohedge
While equity indices are holding in reasonably well amidst market stress, the more important market story is under the hood.
There is meaningful dispersion across constituents beneath the surface, reflecting a market that is quickly separating durable growers from more challenged business models. Source: Rick Rieder
U.S. National Debt just hit $39 trillion
The last trillion was added in just 146 days. That’s $6.85 billion every single day. Or $79,282 every second. Interest costs now exceed $1T annually. Source: Hedgeye
Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey
Source: BofA, TME
