Syz the moment

On pace for its best year since 1979. Source: Charlie Bilello

You're looking at the highest reading on record in 1,841 weekly stock market sentiment observations from 1990 to 2025. ▶️ The inputs: the VIX volatility index + AAII survey bearish respondents + Investors Intelligence survey respondents who expect a correction. ▶️In 10 of the last 11 fear spikes, the S&P 500 went on to gains over the next 52 weeks. Returns were often large too (+31.0%, +21.0%, and so on)...

Marta Bengoa, professor of international economics at City University of New York, said that while the US and China remained heavily interdependent in trade, this meant the ultimate balance of risk was on the US side. “US dependence on China is higher, because China can source agricultural products from elsewhere more easily than the US can replace electronics and machinery,” she said. “Beijing is already buying up soyabeans from Brazil, for example, so in the end China has a bit more leverage.”

"‘termination cannot come fast enough"

THE ECB CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 0.25% for seventh time in a year ▶️ The European Central Bank made yet another 25-basis-point interest rate cut on Thursday as global tariff turmoil has created widespread uncertainty and spurred fears about the euro zone’s economic growth. ▶️ A rate cut was fully anticipated by markets, with an around 94% chance of a 25-basis-point trim being priced in ahead of the decision, according to LSEG data. ▶️ The cut takes the ECB’s deposit facility rate, its key rate, to 2.25%. At its highs in mid-2023 it had been at 4%. ▶️ Tariff developments in recent weeks are widely seen by analysts and economists as a key reason for the ECB to cut interest rates. Even though many of the initial duties imposed by the U.S., as well as retaliation measures, have been put on ice or eased, fears about how they could affect economic growth have been rife. ▶️ In its policy statement, the ECB said that the “outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.” ▶️ It added, “Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions.” Source: Yahoo Finance, CNBC

Rusty, cocoa, OJ bring up the rear Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

China just launched a new kind of trade war. "The U.S. slapped tariffs on Chinese goods. China didn’t retaliate with weapons. They retaliated with information. The kind that makes $1,000 handbags look like $10 scams. TikTok is now flooded with Chinese suppliers exposing the truth: 👜 “You want a Birkin? We make them.” 🧘♀️ “Those $100 Lululemons? They’re $6 here.” 👟 “Your Nikes? Same factory.” Made in China. Shipped to Europe. Stamped “luxury.” Sent back. Marked up 1,000%. You thought you were buying European craftsmanship. You were buying a logo, a story, and a markup fantasy. China just ripped the mask off the entire Western luxury machine and showed you the receipts. And they’re being petty with it. 😏 They’re not just selling you knockoffs. They’re showing you the exact factory. Telling you the production cost. And teaching you how to fly in, shop direct, and skip tariffs altogether.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the discussion for the next Federal Reserve Chair could take place sometime in the fall. ➡️It now looks very clear that Powell's term ends in May 2026. Trump will not reappoint him. ➡️Will Trump fire him? This is very messy (and unknown legally). The alternative, proposed last year by Scott Bessent, was to create a "shadow Fed Chairman." 🔴 How will the Trump administration use a "shadow Fed Chariman"? 1) They appoint Powell's replacement months earlier. 2) They send the nominee regularly go on financial TV, tweet, etc., giving his/her personal opinion and criticising Powell views and decisions, thereby undermining his authority. The shadow Fed Chair could be nominated as soon as this fall...