How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis. Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months. 32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months. In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months. In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time. Can we avoid a recession this time? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
👉 The Bank of Japan held interest rates on Wednesday as the rising risk of a global trade war and potential downturn in the US weighed on Japan’s hope for a sustained economic revival.
👉The unanimous decision, which came at the conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Japanese central bank’s policy board, left the short term policy rate at about 0.5 per cent. 👉The result was widely forecast by economists and had been priced in by markets, according to traders. 👉In a statement accompanying the decision, the BoJ warned that “high uncertainties” remained around Japan’s economic activity and prices. The central bank made particular reference to the “evolving situation regarding trade and other policies in each jurisdiction”. Source: FT
Who needs hot tech...
...when you can have European banks? Chart shows MAG vs SX7E YTD in %. Source: The Market Ear
Lots of things have happened since this cover page by The Economist (October 2024)...
According to the BofA Fund Manager Survey, 69% of investors believe that US exceptionalism has peaked... Have we moved from one extreme to another ????
Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security. Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. Source: App Economy Insights @EconomyApp
Apple Back on Strong Demand Zone
Apple's trend remains very bullish and the stock has consolidated 20% since the December high. It’s now back on a strong support zone between 196-216. Keep an eye on the price action for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
Seasonal trends are about to get more interesting!
source : tme
Swiss Government Lowers Growth Forecasts Ahead of SNB Decision
The Swiss government has trimmed its economic growth outlook for 2025 and 2026, citing global trade tensions. SECO now expects: 📉 2025 GDP: 1.4% (previously 1.5%) 📉 2026 GDP: 1.6% (previously 1.7%) While growth remains below the long-term average of 1.8%, Switzerland is still expected to avoid a recession. This adjustment comes just before the Swiss National Bank’s policy decision on Thursday—a key event to watch. source : reuters
