Tariffs are set to rise to 18% under Trump - according to the Tax foundation This level was last seen around the Great Depression
Source. Bravos Research, Apollo
The S&P 500 has lagged behind Chinese, Mexican and European stocks since Trump's inauguration 👀
Source: Bloomberg
Below is a list of 55 financial websites that are either free or offer extensive free functionalities.
Source: @realLigerCub on X
Germany political situation summarized in one chart
A CDU/CSU and SPD coalition holds a clear majority w/328 out of 630 seats. However, fringe parties AfD and Linke have a blocking minority of 216 seats, making it harder to revise the debt brake. Still, defense spending can be arranged through European mechanisms, bypassing the German debt brake, and the Left Party is likely to support changes for infrastructure investment in Germany. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
The mid-cap MDax is significantly outperforming the benchmark Dax, driven by optimism for economic reforms after the election.
Since the MDax is heavily tied to the German economy, it benefits the most from these expectations. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
“I’m actually pretty negative for the first time in a while,” Cohen said.
“It may only last a year or so, but it’s definitely a period where I think the best gains have been had and wouldn’t surprise me to see a significant correction.” Source: Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH, Bloomberg
Great post from Callum Thomas on X "Lessons from the past..."
While the internet would go on to become ubiquitous and a source of tremendous wealth and innovation -- at the height of the dot com bubble it was pure Hype at that stage... certainly relative to the valuations prevailing at that time. Note however that Mag 7 P/Es and fundamentals are quite different from the dot-com bubble. And that during the current AI bubble, we haven't seen the kind of IPO frenzy which prevailed at the time of the dot.com bubble. So maybe this bubble has more room to go...
HolgerZ on German elections results 👇
•🚨 CDU leader Friedrich Merz has emerged as the winner of a turbulent federal election. The CDU/CSU secured just 28.6% of the vote—its second-worst result in history. The SPD, expected to be the next coalition partner, collapsed to 16.4%, marking its weakest performance since World War II. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD doubled its support to 20.8%, and the Left Party also saw a significant surge, reaching 8.8%. 👉 The FDP and BSW failed to clear the 5% threshold and will NOT be represented in the Bundestag. W/just 45% of the vote, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is possible, avoiding the need to include the Greens, who dropped to 11.6%. 👉However, fringe parties now hold a blocking minority, making constitutional changes—such as setting up an off-budget defense or infrastructure fund or reforming the debt brake—dependent on concessions to them or impossible altogether.
