Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate the US charges on around $3T of imported goods will now go up to 22%- the highest in a century
But remember, this is NOT a final number. Many things can happen. - China could negotiate a deal (or try to absorb the shock via more stimulus and weakening of the Yuan) - The EU could chose to retaliate - and the US escalates... - How will the rest of the world respond is very uncertain as well Expect a new high in the economic uncertainty index and lots of volatility ahead Source: chart: Bianco Research
Vietnam is by far the worst-hit market in Asia today
Index is down 5.5%, worst day in over 4 years. Volumes are nearly 300% the recent average. Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV
U.S. President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Heard and McDonald Islands—uninhabited except for penguins.
Source: Clash Report @clashreport
Oh, the irony.
Source: TrendSpider @TrendSpider
If the 34% tariff is on top of previous tariffs, China's average tariff rate is up 54 ppts this year, swamping what was done in President Trump's first term.
Question: How will China react? If China devalues the Yuan, that could trigger a major risk-off across the world... Source: Robin Brooks
JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
ABB Back on Very Interesting Zone
ABB has consolidated 20% since the highs and is now approaching the March 2024 breakout level. The stock is also in a major demand zone between 40.77-43.60. Keep an eye on the price action for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
Despite the pullback, the S&P 500 is still NOT cheap:
As shown below, the US stock market is expensive or very expensive on 12 out of 13 valuation indicators, according to Charles Schwab analysis. Metrics like 5-year normalized P/E, P/B or Shiller's CAPE are still historically elevated despite the sell-off. Source: Charles Schwab, The Leuthold Group, Bloomberg thru Global Markets Investor
