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On US inflation expectations, from @johnauthers daily note:
"The two-year breakeven has broken above 3% (the upper range of the Fed’s target) to its highest in two years, while the 10-year is also at a two-year high after reaching 2.5%. The breakeven for the five years starting five years hence, which the Fed tracks closely, remains anchored, but it’s obvious that markets are growing more jumpy about inflation." Source: Bloomberg, Mo El-Erian
"AI" +"Adoption" mentions of the US companies with over $1 billion in market capitalization spiked to ~100, an all-time high.
During Q4 2024 earnings, a record 50% of S&P 500 firms mentioned “AI”. Source: Global Markets Investor
India and Chinese Gold Reserves are at all-time highs
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg Opinion
ONE BILLION DOLLAR BABY.....
FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER 🚀 Robinhood $HOOD just had its first quarter with more than $1 Billion of Revenue Source: Evan
Lower wage inflation and higher US unemployment rate ahead?
🚨 One US job market leading indicator is plummeting: The average weekly hours worked by Americans fell to 34.1, the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis and in line with the 2020 crisis low. Typically, hours worked decrease before LAYOFFS pick up...👇 Source: Global Markets Investor, Augur infinity
The gold-to-oil ratio just hit its highest level ever on the monthly chart—excluding the COVID spike.
Could the mining companies be the biggest beneficiaries? This directly impacts their margins, which are expanding significantly as metal prices climb. As pointed out by Tavi Costa, Gold is up nearly $1,000/oz from a year ago, while production costs have risen only about $100–$200/oz, depending on the mine. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
ALERT: New tenant rent data predicts CPI rent inflation by about 9 months
Currently, it’s pointing to a continued decline in rent inflation. And since rent is one of the biggest components of inflation, it suggests that inflation will keep trending lower Source: Bravos Research
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