On April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% in 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
After one of the greatest comebacks ever, it's now up over 6% YTD and above the average year at this point in time. There is no impossible in markets. Source: Charlie Bilello
⚠️US money supply is re-surging:
US M2 money supply jumped 4.5% year-over-year in May, to a record $21.94 TRILLION. This has now surpassed the March 2022 record of $21.86 trillion For perspective, the 2000-2025 annual growth rate has been 6.3%. Chart @econovisuals thru Global Markets Investor
Don't forget, FX effect is a very important component in total returns...
As highlighted by Jeroen Blokland, while the SP500 Index is close to a record high in US dollar terms, in euro, the index is down 11% from its peak in February. The euro has reached its highest level since September 2021, which hurts euro-denominated investors. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Tom Lee has been appointed chairman on the board of directors for Bitmine, a Bitcoin miner.
Today they announced a $250M private placement to implement buying Ethereum for their $ETH treasury. $BMNR, the public stock for Bitmine, is up 48% in the pre-markets. Tom Lee: “Stablecoins have proven to be the ‘ChatGPT’ of crypto, leading to rapid adoption by consumers, merchants and financial services providers,” Lee said in a statement. “Ethereum is the blockchain where the majority of stablecoin payments are transacted and thus, ETH should benefit from this growth.” Source: @amitisinvesting on X
XAI, the artificia lintelligence startup run by Elon Musk, raised a combined $10 billion in debt and equity, Morgan Stanley said.
Half of that sum was clinched through secured notes and term loans, while a separate $5 billion was secured through strategic equity investment, the bank said on Monday. The funding gives xAI more firepower to build out infrastructure and develop its Grok AI chatbot as it looks to compete with bitter rival OpenAI, as well as with a swathe of other players including Amazon -backed Anthropic.
McDonald's Reacting on Major Swing Support
McDonald's (MCD) has consolidated 13% since the highs and is now back on the major swing support zone between 276-286. Yesterday, we saw some positive price action on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential short-term trend change. Keep an eye on the price action over the next few days for further developments. Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar posted its steepest first-half decline in over five decades, as erratic policy shifts and signs of slowing economic activity continue to erode confidence in the reserve currency.
The Dollar Index DXY Index fell 10.8% in H1 2025 as the Dollar weakened sharply against major developed-market currencies. The Greenback tumbled 14.4% against the Swiss franc, 13.8% against the Euro and 9.7% versus the Pound. Emerging-market currencies also rallied, delivering some of their strongest gains in years. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
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