China’s economy is hitting an imbalance wall. It keeps building, but people aren’t buying.
🧱 Investment eats up 42% of GDP — nearly double the global average. 🛒 Household spending? Just 37% — vs. 60% in most economies. The result: too many factories, not enough consumers. Property prices are still falling, savings rates are sky-high (20%+), and deflation has taken hold. Consumer prices are down, producer prices have been negative for years, and exports are doing all the heavy lifting — but even that’s cracking under U.S. tariffs. Instead of fixing the imbalance, Beijing is doubling down on the old playbook: more infrastructure, more state-led projects, little direct help for households. Economists say China needs a massive rebalancing — trillions in fiscal transfers to boost consumption and rebuild trust in the safety net. But that would mean loosening state control… and that’s not the direction things are heading. 📉 Without change, growth could slow to ~3% a year. 🧊 Deflation lingers. ⚙️ Factories hum, but consumers stay quiet. China’s still building the world’s factories — but it’s running out of people to sell to. Source: StockMarket.news
JPMorgan Chase – Positive rebound on swing support
The stock rebounded two days ago on a key swing support zone! Support at 291.44 was tested but managed to hold, with a close above that level. This could mark the end of the consolidation phase and the beginning of a new upward move. Source: Bloomberg
US Treasury yields are falling — but this time, it’s not about fear. It’s about confidence. 💡
The Trump–Bessent supply-side mix, tariff revenues, and AI-driven growth are reshaping the bond market story. 💵 Tariffs are turning out to be less inflationary than initially feared (at least for now) and deficit-friendly. 💰 Stablecoins now hold $180B+ in Treasuries, quietly anchoring the short end of the curve. 🚀 The U.S. productivity boom powered by AI is leaving others behind — while Europe unravels fiscally, Britain wrestles with debt, and China sinks deeper into deflation. As global credit stress rises, U.S. bonds are the safe haven again. The curve’s bull flattening isn’t a warning — it’s (almost) a vote of confidence. The U.S. is once again the "least worst" house in a bad neighborhood of indebted peers. Source: Bloomberg, James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy
🚨 Germany’s biggest carmaker is in trouble.
Volkswagen is staring at a potential €11 billion cash shortfall next year — a gap big enough to derail its investment plans and EV transition. Half-year profits are down 33%, and cash flow has turned negative (€1.4 billion). What’s driving the crisis? 🇨🇳 Weak sales in China 🇺🇸 Tariffs from the U.S. ⚙️ Fierce competition from fast-moving Chinese EV makers Now, cuts are hitting everywhere — marketing, sales, and even R&D. The company may be forced to sell assets just to fund new models and technologies. Executives are calling it “particularly fatal” — hitting right as Volkswagen tries to shift from combustion engines to electric. The once-unshakable German auto powerhouse is learning the hard way: 🔋 The EV race isn’t just about innovation — it’s about survival. Source: https://lnkd.in/gC5NC2YH, Bild
$7,000,000,000,000 sitting in money markets.
As rates come down that $7T will go somewhere. Where? • Gold • Bitcoin • Real Estate • Stocks Source: Grant Cardone
JP Morgan: “After taking 12 years to double from $1,000 to $2,000 (2008–2020), gold doubled again in just 5 years, crossing $4,000 this month.
The move from $3,000 to $4,000 took ~200 days — and from $3,300 to $4,300 only ~60.” Source: The Market Ear, JPM
$500 billion dollars of annual trade is being paused because of a $75,000 commercial?
Source: Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian
Yesterday we saw another $3 billion FED pump into the banking system.
The use of the facility is now a daily occurrence; the regional banking sector obviously has a liquidity issue. That's a total of $21 billion in 4 weeks. Source: The Great Martin on X
