🚨 Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) about to end?
GoldmanSachs, JPMorgan, and BofA now see the Fed flipping course as liquidity gets dangerously tight. 💧 Bank reserves have dropped below $3 trillion again, a critical threshold for financial stability. 🏦 The reverse repo balance, which acted as a key liquidity buffer for the past 4 years, is now basically zero. That’s a big deal. With more Treasury bill settlements coming — and no reverse repo cushion left — the Fed may soon have no choice but to end QT and pivot back toward liquidity support. Both Goldman and JPMorgan have moved up their forecasts: they now expect the Fed to halt balance sheet runoff this month, well ahead of earlier expectations. Why? Because dollar funding costs are rising, and the system is flashing early signs of liquidity stress. 🧩 QT may have done its job. Now the Fed’s next move could be about stabilizing, not draining. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Big Move in AI + Mobility!
On Thursday, $NVIDIA dropped a game-changing announcement — it’s partnering with Uber Technologies to push the frontier of autonomous driving. Here’s what’s exciting 👇 🚗 Uber brings massive real-world driving data from millions of trips. 🧠 NVIDIA brings its Cosmos World foundational model — built to power self-driving intelligence. ⚡ Development will run on NVIDIA DGX Cloud, supercharging the entire training pipeline. The market noticed: Uber’s stock jumped after the news, as investors saw this as a strong move to cement Uber’s edge in next-gen transportation tech..
Don't tell your favorite bear, but November is the best month for stocks since 1950
It is the second best month the past 20 years, best month the past decade, and third best in a post-election year. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick
Finally some US data... And it might please the markets... The September CPI was indeed softer than expected.
CPI MoM: 0.3% vs 0.4% exp. CPI Core MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% exp. CPI YoY: 3.0% vs 3.1% exp. CPI Core YoY: 3.0% vs 3.1% exp. It’s still the hottest YoY print since January, but overall confirms inflation is easing again. Gasoline drove most of the increase, rising 4.1%, while electricity and natural gas fell. Food prices barely moved at +0.2%, with only small upticks in bakery and beverage costs. Shelter continues to cool. Rent inflation dropped to 3.4% YoY, the lowest since 2021 and monthly rent growth was the smallest in more than two years. Shelter overall rose just 0.28% MoM, signaling that housing, one of the biggest drivers of sticky inflation, is finally loosening its grip. Core CPI rose just 0.2% MoM, bringing the annual rate down to 3.0%, its lowest since June. Airline fares and apparel climbed, but used cars, insurance, and communication costs all declined. “Supercore” services ex-shelter fell to 3.3%, the lowest since May, showing that inflation pressure in service-heavy areas like travel, insurance, and recreation is softening across the board. Source: Charlie Bilello, StockMarket.news on X
Gold to Silver ratio through history
Source: Ali C on X
U.S. debt has surged by over $10 trillion in less than five years, largely due to massive pandemic-era spending.
Beginning in 2020, the government unleashed trillions through stimulus checks, unemployment aid, and small business loans under the CARES Act, followed by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in 2021. Although borrowing briefly slowed in 2022, new spending on infrastructure, social programs (Inflation Reduction Act), and defense reignited debt growth. Meanwhile, rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight made servicing the debt far more expensive, pushing annual interest payments into the hundreds of billions. Despite strong tax revenues, the U.S. has run trillion-dollar deficits every year since 2019. Repeated debt-ceiling battles have failed to curb borrowing, as Congress consistently raises or suspends the limit. For investors, the result is a surge in Treasury supply that keeps long-term yields and borrowing costs high, while inflation expectations remain elevated—driving continued interest in gold, TIPS, and real assets as inflation hedges. Source: StockMarket.news, www.zerohedge.com
Some Bitcoin whales are doing custom creations of $IBIT
These whales are trading in their physical Bitcoin for shares of the ETF for a variety of benefits after discovering TradFi has its perks. BlackRock has done $3b of these. Source: Eric Balchunas
This chart shows how bank lending has quietly reshaped the credit world
Since 2015, loans to non depository financial institutions (NDFIs) basically private equity and private credit funds have skyrocketed nearly 300%, while everything else has barely moved. Consumer loans, commercial real estate, residential lending, all flat. The growth is almost entirely in one direction, banks lending to the lenders. Source: StockMarket.news
