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Source: Compounding Quality
FOMC MINUTES WERE PUBLISHED TODAY, here are the highlights 👇
▪ ‘Substantial majority’ backed half-point rate cut ▪ ‘Some’ officials would have preferred quarter-point cut ▪ ‘Almost all’ officials saw higher risks to labor market ▪ ‘Almost all’ participants saw lower inflation risks The key takeaway >>> FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut While there was only one dissent, the FOMC Minutes show "some" officials preferred a 25bps cut. Despite the apparent dovish pivot, expectations for rate-cuts (this year and next) has plunged dramatically - see chart below Source: Stocktwits, zerohedge
Meanwhile: Very significant upward revision in the real GDP forecast for Brazil this last month.
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
One of the reasons mentioned by many analysts to explain the aggressive rate cut (50bps) by the Fed in September was the following:macr
Shelter is the sticky component of inflation. If the Fed cut rates, we should see a drop in the mortgage rate which will enable more real estate supply and thus lower shelter inflation. Well, the Fed cut rates but mortgage rates are not declining. They are even moving higher? Has the Fed lost control of the bond market?
It's not just online betting markets:
Goldman's "Republican Victory" basket surged today and has taken the lead over "Democrat Victory" for the first time since the debate. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Is this market unbreakable?
The S&P 500 is about to hit $50 TRILLION in market cap for the first time in history. It's now up +22% this year and over +40% since the October 2023 low. Despite many headwinds (Middle east tensions, US elections uncertainties, etc.), even a pullback of 5% is barely able to hold... How far can this bull market go without any correction??? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
😱 The shocking chart of the day >>> S&P 500 COMPANIES EARNINGS GROWTH DOES NOT EXIST WITHOUT MAGNIFICENT 7😱
In 5 out of the last 6 quarters, the S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7 profit growth has been negative. It is estimated the Mag 7 net income will grow by 18% in Q3 2024 while the other 493 firms by 1%. Note however 2 changes in trend: 1) The Mag 7 eps growth is slowing down (from a high base); The non-Mag 7 EPS growth is picking up (and turning slightly positive) from a low base. Sometimes the second derivative is more important than the absolute number. Time will tell... Source: The Global Markets Investor
Exter’s Inverted Pyramid of Risk offers a powerful lens through which to understand the financial system.
Source: Ali C
