Another big week of earnings coming up!
• Monday: $MNDY. • Tuesday: $HD, $NU, $SE. • Wednesday: $CSCO, $JD, $STNE, $TCEHY. • Thursday: $BILL, $WMT. Source: Earnings Whisper, App Economy Insight
Countries with the highest interest in bitcoin
Source: Google Search
Mohnish Pabrai is seen by many as the best Indian investor ever
He paid $650,000 to lunch with Buffett and compounded at 25% (!) per year. Here's his investment checklist by Value Walk thru Compounding Quality / Chris Quinn
Out of 20 valuation metrics, the SP500 is currently overvalued on 19 of them relative to historical levels
Source: Barchart
Many analysts point their fingers towards the options market for signs of stock market trouble. Goldman says dealers in ‘short gamma’ for first time this year
Meanwhile, we have a new 0DTE* options volume record. *Zero days to expiration options, or 0DTE options for short, are options contracts that expire and become void the same day that they’re traded. When an option reaches this stage, there’s not much more time left to act on the right to buy or sell the underlying asset. The window is small, and the move that the trader is plotting needs to happen fast. 0DTE options trading has entered the mainstream in recent years and is a popular premium collecting strategy. Source: www.zerohedge,com, Bloomberg, investopedia
What are the latest moves when it comes to market expectations on Fed rates ?
A Fed HIKE of 25 bps by NOVEMBER moved from 30% to 33%. It is still below 50%. So not priced in. But a 3% increase (30% to 33%) is the biggest up move in a month. Furthermore, odds of rate CUTS are dropping. Markets now do not see any rate cuts until May 2024 in the base case. 3 months ago, markets expected 4 rate cuts in 2023. Markets seem to be bracing for a long Fed "pause." Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bianco Research
US Treasuries yields keep going up despite record INFLOWS. As shown by BofA, US Treasuries are on track for the largest inflow EVER ($127bn YTD is equivalent to $206bn annualized)
Yet, yields don’t fall as US 10-year hit 4.13% this week as inflation reports failed to reverse the trend. What will happen to yields if investors start to panic and dump their US Treasuries? Or should we on the contrary see the hefty yield paid by US Treasuries as a buffer which continues to attract yield chasers and thus prevent yields to rise too high and too quickly? Source: BofA
Nvidia ($NVDA) was the big loser, down over 8% on the week (its biggest weekly loss since Sept 2022...)
Will the stock repeat a similar de-bubbling process than the one which took place after the crypto/mining boom? (at the time, Nvidia chips were seeing growing demand from the crypto miners but the buzz faded when crypto crashed) Let's keep in mind that Nvida is now a much BIGGER WEIGHT in the key US equity indices than it used to be at the time... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
