From T.I.N.A (There is No Alternatives to risk assets) to T.A.R.A (There Are Reasonable Alternatives, i.e bonds)
Three years ago in August 2020, the S&P’s dividend yield (in red below) was 1.8%, almost 50 bps higher than the highest yield on the treasury curve. Every treasury note with a duration shorter than 5 years had a yield below 0.2% and the 1-month was almost ZERO. Fast forward to today and the S&P’s dividend yield of 1.55% is 260 bps lower than the lowest point on the treasury curve right now (the 10-year at 4.15%). And the 1-month T-bill yielding at 5.34% is 380 basis points higher than the S&P’s dividend yield. Source: Bespoke
Many are concerned that higher rates will hurt growth, but it turns out that a lot of S&P 500 companies have locked in debt at much lower rates until 2030
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs
The comeback of bond vigilantes: US 10y real rates have jumped to 1.77%, almost the highest level since 2009
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
President Joe Biden blasted China’s economic problems as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks”
His latest barb against President Xi Jinping’s government even as his administration seeks to improve overall ties with Beijing. In comments that included several major inaccuracies about the world’s second-largest economy, Biden said at a political fundraiser Thursday that China was in “trouble” because its growth has slowed and it had the “highest unemployment rate going.” He also blasted Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as the “debt and noose,” because of the high levels of lending to developing economies associated with the global investment program. Although Biden misrepresented key statistics about China, overall outlook remains grim. This chart by Bloomberg thru Holger Z is a harsh remainder of the amount of leverage in the Chinese economy. As growth slows down alongside deflationary threat, this could become a major issue. Source: Bloomberg
Ominous sign of weakness in Chinese economy: China is suffering Italian style youth unemployment despite Chinese women retiring in early fifties
Source: Francois Trahan thru Michel ArouetT
About providing the right information, and presenting it the right way!
Source: P. Akers thru Pascal BORNET
Global equity positioning by ctas is very, very long
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Goldman Sachs
Crude Oil cannot be stopped! It just had its 7th consecutive green week, its longest winning streak since February 2022
Source: Barchart
