😱 The shocking chart of the day >>> S&P 500 COMPANIES EARNINGS GROWTH DOES NOT EXIST WITHOUT MAGNIFICENT 7😱
In 5 out of the last 6 quarters, the S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7 profit growth has been negative. It is estimated the Mag 7 net income will grow by 18% in Q3 2024 while the other 493 firms by 1%. Note however 2 changes in trend: 1) The Mag 7 eps growth is slowing down (from a high base); The non-Mag 7 EPS growth is picking up (and turning slightly positive) from a low base. Sometimes the second derivative is more important than the absolute number. Time will tell... Source: The Global Markets Investor
Exter’s Inverted Pyramid of Risk offers a powerful lens through which to understand the financial system.
Source: Ali C
Global manufacturing is contracting:
The Global Manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.8 points in September, down from 49.6 in August, marking the 3rd straight monthly contraction. 4 of the 5 index components shrunk last month including output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases. Furthermore, new export orders declined at the fastest rate in 11 months. This implies that global trade volumes could be decreasing now by 3-4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, manufacturers' business optimism fell to a 22-month low, suggesting a grim outlook for the next few months. Source: JP Morgan, The Kobeissi Letter
⁉️IS THE VOLATILITY INDEX VIX SET TO SPIKE FURTHER⁉️
VIX spiking bets (via call options) soared to one of the highest levels of 2024, according to the WSJ analysis. Call options betting the VIX index will skyrocket to 45 points by October 16 HAVE TRIPLED in a matter of days. Source: Global Markets Investor, WSJ
Why the VIX is acting bananas: look at the events that are now in its 30 day window
Source: BofA, zerohedge
$UBER has launched an $18 shuttle service from Manhattan to LaGuardia Airport -- with plans to expand to more airports
Source: Shay Boloor on X
Chanel has had remarkable growth in recent years.
In 2023, it generated more revenue than Hermès $RMS.PA and approximately the same amount as Kering $KER.PA and Richemont $CFR.SW, at around $20 billion. The 114 year-old luxury giant is privately owned by the Wertheimer brothers, whose grandfather was a business partner of Coco Chanel. When the CEO, Leena Nair, was asked about an IPO last year, she said: “We’re going to stay a private, independent company. Rumours always float around, but you can put those to rest." Source: Quartr
BREAKING: The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record.
This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the last 3 years to a near-record 28.2 million. Concerningly, full-time employment has declined by 1 million since November 2023. Multiple jobholders have been rapidly rising over the last few years as Americans are fighting record-high prices. Millions of Americans are working multiple jobs to afford basic necessities. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
