Meanwhile: Very significant upward revision in the real GDP forecast for Brazil this last month.
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
One of the reasons mentioned by many analysts to explain the aggressive rate cut (50bps) by the Fed in September was the following:macr
Shelter is the sticky component of inflation. If the Fed cut rates, we should see a drop in the mortgage rate which will enable more real estate supply and thus lower shelter inflation. Well, the Fed cut rates but mortgage rates are not declining. They are even moving higher? Has the Fed lost control of the bond market?
It's not just online betting markets:
Goldman's "Republican Victory" basket surged today and has taken the lead over "Democrat Victory" for the first time since the debate. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Is this market unbreakable?
The S&P 500 is about to hit $50 TRILLION in market cap for the first time in history. It's now up +22% this year and over +40% since the October 2023 low. Despite many headwinds (Middle east tensions, US elections uncertainties, etc.), even a pullback of 5% is barely able to hold... How far can this bull market go without any correction??? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
😱 The shocking chart of the day >>> S&P 500 COMPANIES EARNINGS GROWTH DOES NOT EXIST WITHOUT MAGNIFICENT 7😱
In 5 out of the last 6 quarters, the S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7 profit growth has been negative. It is estimated the Mag 7 net income will grow by 18% in Q3 2024 while the other 493 firms by 1%. Note however 2 changes in trend: 1) The Mag 7 eps growth is slowing down (from a high base); The non-Mag 7 EPS growth is picking up (and turning slightly positive) from a low base. Sometimes the second derivative is more important than the absolute number. Time will tell... Source: The Global Markets Investor
Exter’s Inverted Pyramid of Risk offers a powerful lens through which to understand the financial system.
Source: Ali C
Global manufacturing is contracting:
The Global Manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.8 points in September, down from 49.6 in August, marking the 3rd straight monthly contraction. 4 of the 5 index components shrunk last month including output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases. Furthermore, new export orders declined at the fastest rate in 11 months. This implies that global trade volumes could be decreasing now by 3-4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, manufacturers' business optimism fell to a 22-month low, suggesting a grim outlook for the next few months. Source: JP Morgan, The Kobeissi Letter
⁉️IS THE VOLATILITY INDEX VIX SET TO SPIKE FURTHER⁉️
VIX spiking bets (via call options) soared to one of the highest levels of 2024, according to the WSJ analysis. Call options betting the VIX index will skyrocket to 45 points by October 16 HAVE TRIPLED in a matter of days. Source: Global Markets Investor, WSJ
