Core goods CPI plunged further into deflation territory in July ... -1.9% year/year
Source: Kevin Gordon, Bloomberg
Interest rate futures are now pricing in 8 Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Market expectations have sharply shifted over the last week toward more cuts in anticipation of economic weakness. Over the last 60 years, every time the market expected 200 basis points of rate cuts, a recession in the US followed within several months. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman Sachs
July US CPI fell to 2.9%, below expectations of 3.0%
ore CPI inflation fell to 3.2%, in-line with expectations of 3.2%. This marks the first month with CPI inflation below 3.0% since March 2021. However, Supercore inflation snapped back to just above the pre-COVID average after two months of outright declines. Shelter inflation also surged back to a 0.38% m/m gain after an unusual decline to 0.17% in June. This is not the perfect report the hashtag#Fed would be looking for. However, there is nothing overly concerning from what we've seen thus far. The first rate cut since 2020 is probably coming next month.
Cobalt is a critical mineral used in numerous commercial, industrial, and military applications.
In recent years, it has gained attention as it is also necessary for batteries used in cell phones, laptops, and electric vehicles (EVs). This graphic by Elements / Visual Capitalist illustrates estimated cobalt production by country in 2023 in metric tons. The data is from the most recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries, published in January 2024.
Productivity rules
Source: Eric Parker on X
Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund on Wednesday posted first-half profit of 1.48 trillion kroner ($138 billion)
It has been primarily driven by robust returns on its investments in technology stocks. The so-called Government Pension Fund Global — the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund — said it had a value of 17.75 trillion kroner at the end of June. The fund’s overall return for the six-month period was 8.6%, which was 0.04 percentage points lower than the return on its benchmark index. “The result was mainly driven by the technology stocks, due to increased demand for new solutions in artificial intelligence,” CEO Tangen said in a statement. Source: CNBC
BREAKING: For those who were off the last 2 weeks, nothing happened: the $VIX is back to where it was on August 1...
Source: Stocktwits, Bloomberg
Global debt has officially reached $315 trillion
Source: IIF Global Debt
