Swing States Odds by https://lnkd.in/eEVhR_yt
Source: Interactive Polls
The weirdest newspaper cover page so far...
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A vision of the future in 1953.
Source: Jon Erlichman
A landslide and sweep victory for Trump, this probably reduces uncertainty which is positive for stocks, BTC and the dollar.
Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve. We also expect the "pro-republican" type of stocks to move higher. Pro-trump / republican seep victory sectors include Energy, Defense, Immigration-enforcement, For-profit education, Financials, some healthcare stocks, etc. Among the losers: Tech, Renewables, etc. From a geographical point of view, some US-friendly countries (India, Vietnam, etc.) might benefit from a Trump re-election. China and Mexico (and US stocks related to them) might suffer. Same for European autos exporters for instance. Source table: Bob Elliott
Romanian stock market index BET has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over the past 5 years.
Source: Holgerz, Bloomberg
Bitcoin jumps >$60k as Trump shooting boosts Trump election odds.
Cryptos are the only assets trading 24/7. This could indicate a positive market reaction tomorrow. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Trump's strength in such a tough moment makes the contrast to Biden even larger...
This assassination attempt (the 1st of its kind in 43 years) took place 4 months before the Presidential election and days before Trump is to be officially named the Republican nominee at his party's convention. It is most likely a boost to his election - just watch the odds on PredictIt on the right. Worldwide, the image of a bloodied 78 years old man raising fist just a minute after the shooting is very powerful. But it also highlights how split America is.
In Germany, the number of corporate insolvencies up by a third.
In April 2024, the local courts reported 1,906 corporate insolvencies. The courts put the creditors' claims from the corporate insolvencies reported in April 2024 at ~€11.4bn. In April 2023, the claims had totaled ~€1.3bn. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
