BREAKING 🚨: Chinese Banks
40 Chinese Banks vanished during a single week in June Source: Barchart
Yesterday's "SIZE" rotation put into perspective.
US small caps outperformed large caps by 4.5% on Thursday, a 6 standard deviation event and the 2nd biggest outperformance on record (trailing only the 10 sigma differential on October 10, 2008). This brutal rotation is taking place after a huge period of small-caps underperformance vs. large caps $IWM $SPY Source: Charlie Bilello, Steno Research
China posts biggest monthly trade surplus in at least 24 years, nearly $100B in June - Bloomberg
China’s trade surplus soared to an all-time high in June, with a jump in exports overwhelming an unexpected decline in imports and raising the risk of greater trade tensions. Exports rose to $308 billion, expanding for a third straight month to the highest level in almost two years, the customs administration said Friday. Imports fell to $209 billion, leaving a record trade surplus of $99 billion for the month. The growing imbalance has spooked China’s trade partners, who have responded with more tariffs on Chinese imports including electric vehicles. This tension has worsened ties between the European Union and Beijing, which this week opened a tit-for-tat probe into the EU’s trade barriers in what could bring the economies closer to a trade war. The surplus “reflects the economic condition in China, with weak domestic demand and strong production capacity relying on exports,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management. However, “the sustainability of strong exports is a major risk for China’s economy in the second half of the year. The economy in the US is weakening. Trade conflicts are getting worse.” Source: Bloomberg
Biden betting odds (blue line) fall after US President calls Ukraine’s Zelensky ‘President Putin’ in latest brutal gaffe, but corrects himself.
Trump odds (in red) now stand at 59% while Harris odds (in green) increased to 27% Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, FT
Yesterday was a big ROTATION day on US equities market with small-caps hugely outperforming large-caps
Indeed, small-cap Russell 2,000 gained 3%+ while the S&P 500 fell on the day. The only other day that happened was back on 10/10/2008... Investors probaby have these 2 charts in mind: 1) The HUGE underperformance of small caps vs large aps over the recent years; 2) History showing that Small caps outperform AFTER the first rate cut. The lower than expected US CPI iunflation number for June acted as a trigger for the rotation with hedge funds being forced to cover their long large / short small par trades. Source: Bloomberg, DB, RBC
It has now been over 220 days without a 5% pullback in the S&P 500, the 3rd longest streak in the last 10 years.
The last time a 5% correction occurred was in the second half of 2023. Overall, over the last 34 years, the longest stretch lasted for ~550 days in 2016-2018. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has skyrocketed by 33% since October and 15% year-to-date in one of its best rallies in years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman Sachs
That RTY (Russell 2000) / NDX (Nasdaq 100) spread was over 600bps at its peak today.
By the close it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Is the Bank of Japan intervening again trying to prevent the Yen from falling further against the U.S. Dollar?
barchart
