Dow Chemical just doubled their polyethylene price increase, from $0.15/lb to $0.30/lb, effective April 1st. That's roughly a 60% price hike on the most widely used plastic on Earth.
LyondellBasell has gone even further, $0.35/lb in cumulative increases through May. Polyethylene is in your packaging, your water bottles, your grocery bags, your construction materials, your medical supplies. About 50% of global production capacity is now either offline or feedstock-constrained because of the Hormuz crisis. This is how a war in the Middle East shows up at your grocery store. Energy costs don't stay in the energy sector. They flow through everything you buy. Source: TFTC @TFTC21
The Philippines has become the first country to declare a national energy emergency amid the Iran conflict
with just 45 days of fuel reserves remaining. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order 110, warning of an “imminent danger” to the country’s energy supply. The order, in effect for one year, allows the government to directly procure fuel, enforce rationing, and control distribution of essentials like food and medicine. The vulnerability is stark. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf. Its top suppliers—Saudi Arabia ($1.79B), the UAE ($1.22B), and Iraq ($474M)—are all directly affected by the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, these supply routes are under severe strain, and Saudi exports to Asia have already been cut for a second straight month. Domestically, the country produces just 14,300 barrels per day but consumes around 474,000—a massive 97% shortfall. This is what a global energy shock looks like in real time. Source: TFTC
Will Oil prices continue mirroring the 1990 Gulf War analog?
Source: The Chart Report
Recurring Deal-Making Pattern: Markets, Denials, and Strategic Timing
A familiar strategy emerges: in April 2025, yields rose and Donald Trump signaled a China deal, denied by China before confirmation weeks later. Now, similar dynamics appear with Iran—denials, market pressure, and rising yields suggest ongoing hidden negotiations. This “denial phase” implies continued volatility, conflicting headlines, and delayed market stabilization as leverage is maintained until agreements finalize. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CNBC, WSJ
This is notable news from Bloomberg given Apollo's standing in private credit:
"Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge in such requests. The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%." Source: Mo El Erian on X, Bloomberg
Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Suspicious $580M Oil Trades Precede Trump Announcement, Raising Insider Concerns
$580M in oil futures (Brent, WTI) were traded minutes before Donald Trump announced “productive talks” with Iran, triggering falling oil prices and rising global stocks. The timing fuels insider trading concerns, as unusual volumes and market moves appeared before public news. Experts call it abnormal, echoing past suspicious trades. The White House denies wrongdoing amid growing investor concern. Source: Financial Times (FT)
The S&P 500 $SPX is back inside the "eternal" range as the max frustration market continues.
Amazingly enough, the 6600/7000 (futures) range continues to hold. Note we are still below the 200 day MA. Source: TME
