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27 Feb 2023

Global bonds have officially erased all YTD gains

Source: Bloomberg

27 Feb 2023

Germany is still far from its energy transition goals

Germany must invest $1tn in expansion of renewable energy by 2030 in order to cover 80% of its electricity needs from renewable sources by then. Germany needs 43 soccer fields of solar power every day, boldest project since WWII. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

27 Feb 2023

A 60/40 Portfolio remains 14% below its all-time high

A 60/40 Portfolio of US stocks/bonds is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its all-time high. This is the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the aftermath of the dot-com bubble (43 months). Source: Charlie Bilello

24 Feb 2023

The yield on German 2-year bonds reached 3% for the first time since 2008!

While yesterday the Eurozone core CPI reached a new record of 5.3%, the German 2-year bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 2008! The ECB still has a lot of work (more than currently expected?) to do in tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, especially considering the minor impact (for now) of the Fed's monetary policy tightening on US inflation and the economy. Source: Bloomberg

23 Feb 2023

Eurozone inflation for January tops earlier estimate

Eurozone CPI rose 8.6% in Jan YoY, up from 8.5% increase prev estimated. Core CPI, which strips out volatile categories, was 5.3%, up from preliminary estimate of 5.2% and fresh ATH. Core gives ECB hawks new fuel for more hikes.

23 Feb 2023

Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising

This is the chart that is rattling the markets: Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising!

23 Feb 2023

German Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January

Supermarket inflation remains elevated in Gernmany. Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January. Following the rebalancing of the basket of goods by German Statistics Office, food now has a higher weight in inflation rate. Share rose by 2ppts from 8.5% to 10.5%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

22 Feb 2023

Second largest daily outflow for a US high yield bond ETF!

One of the largest U.S. high-yield bond ETFs had a daily outflow of $1 billion (over 10% of assets under management) yesterday. The only time we've seen it was in June 2020. Capitulation? Source: Bloomberg

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