Bitcoin: while are retail dumping, whales buying
Source: Glassnode
Silver just "crashed" 31% in a single day. 📉
But if you’re looking at the price on your screen, you’re missing the real story. On January 30, while paper silver was hitting $78, physical silver in Shanghai was trading at $120. That is a 54% premium. 🤯 The Great Divorce In a legitimate market crash, physical assets usually trade at a discount. Buyers disappear. Panic sets in. But what we just witnessed wasn't a bubble bursting. It was Paper and Physical divorcing in real-time. 💔 The system is breaking because the arbitrage required to close that gap relies on metal that simply doesn't exist in the vaults. The Math of a Meltdown Look at the COMEX leverage right now: - Registered Inventory: 108.7 million ounces. - Open Interest: 1.586 BILLION ounces. - The Leverage Ratio: 14:1. The Reality: If just 7% of contract holders stand for physical delivery, the vaults are empty. Game over. 🛑 The Bottom Line We are watching a game of musical chairs where 14 people are fighting for one seat. The "price" is becoming irrelevant when you can't actually source the metal at that cost. Is March 2026 the ultimate stress test for the global financial system? ⏳ Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86 on X
No bounce... pickup up where we left off on Friday.
*SPOT GOLD FALLS 5%, ADDING TO BIGGEST PLUNGE IN OVER A DECADE (Down 18% from Thursday's high) Source: Jim Bianco
The average drawdown in the first 6 months of a new Fed Chair is 15%.
The market likes to test them... Source: NDR, RBC
Markets in Asia are getting shredded on Monday.
Indonesia and Korea down over 5% each; commodities tossed out the window Source: David Ingles
Natural Gas getting dumped 📉📉
Source: Barchart
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.
These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B. Source: Bianco Research
IS KEVIN WARSH A DOVE OR A HAWK ?
Interestingly, since his name came up yesterday, markets have been pricing in more his hawkish reputation than his more recent dovish tilt: - Risk assets lower: equities down, bitcoin / cryptos down, gold down and silver in bear market! - Steeper yield curve: could be related to the fact that he is in favour of a smaller Fed balance sheet - Stronger dollar So how should we interpret market erratic moves over the last two days? Stop labeling Kevin Warsh as just a "Hawk." 🦅❌ The social media "chattering class" loves a simple label, but the reality of the next Fed Chair is far more nuanced. If you’re building a strategy based on the idea that Warsh is purely a rate-hiker, you’re missing the bigger picture. Here is the "Warsh Playbook" that the headlines are missing: 1. The "Productivity Boom" Pivot 🚀 Warsh isn't looking to keep rates high for the sake of it. He believes the U.S. is in a massive productivity surge. If that’s true, the Fed can actually lower rates without sparking inflation. It’s a growth-friendly view that most "hawks" wouldn't touch. 2. The Policy Mix: Lower Rates + Tighter Balance Sheet ⚖️ This is the sophisticated play. Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s massive balance sheet while simultaneously keeping interest rates manageable. It’s a "tighter but lower" approach that aims for long-term stability rather than short-term sugar rushes. 3. Pragmatism Over Ideology 🛠️ History check: During the COVID-19 onset, Warsh was weeks ahead of Jay Powell in calling for an aggressive response. When the alarm bells ring, he’s shown he’s a practical crisis manager, not a rigid academic. The Bottom Line: Calling him a hawk is a convenient narrative for his confirmation hearings—it shows independence from the White House. But in practice? Expect a Fed Chair who is data-driven, productivity-focused, and ready to move fast when the situation demands it.
