Syz the moment

After months of speculation, President Trump has officially named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. This isn't just another personnel move. It’s a seismic shift for the U.S. economy. Here is why every professional needs to be paying attention: 1. The End of an Era (and a Feud) 🥊 The tension between Trump and Powell has been no secret since 2018. By picking Warsh, the President is looking for what he calls a "GREAT" chairman to lead a new direction. 2. Credibility is the Currency 💎 Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief. Why? Because Warsh has been there before. As David Bahnsen noted, he has the "respect and credibility" of the markets. He’s seen as a pro who understands the plumbing of the financial system. 3. The Fight for Independence 🛡️ The big question: Can the Fed stay independent? With debates swirling about White House oversight and interest rate consultations, Warsh will be walking a tightrope between political pressure and economic reality. 4. A "No-Fire, No-Hire" Economy 📉 Inflation isn't at 2% yet, and the labor market is cooling. Warsh inherits a "precarious" moment where the margin for error is razor-thin. The Bottom Line: Kevin Warsh called for "regime change" at the Fed last summer. Now, he’s the one holding the keys. 🔑 Markets are pricing in stability for now, but with Jerome Powell potentially staying on as a Governor to protect Fed independence, the boardroom in D.C. is about to get very interesting.

If the goal is "easy on inflation," the history books tell a very different story about Kevin Warsh. Looking back at the FOMC transcripts from 2006-2011, one moment stands out that should make every investor pause. 📍 The Setting: April 2009. The world was still reeling 7 months after the Lehman Brothers collapse. - Unemployment: 9% - Core PCE Inflation: A mere 0.8% - Despite a crashing economy and deflationary pressure, Warsh’s stance was clear: "I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks." The Takeaway: Warsh has historically been an "inflation hawk," even when the data suggested the opposite. If he takes the helm, we might be looking at a much more aggressive Fed than the "dovish" transition many are currently pricing in. Source: Bloomberg, Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist

If you thought your Tuesday was stressful, take a look at the global markets. We just witnessed one of the most violent 24-hour wealth erasures in modern history. 📉 The numbers are honestly hard to process: 1️⃣ The Metals Massacre 🪙 This wasn’t just a "dip"—it was a cliff dive. - Gold: -10.9% ($4.1 TRILLION evaporated) - Silver: -21.5% - Platinum: -23% - Palladium: -20% Safe havens? Not today. 2️⃣ Tech & Equities Bleed 💻 While the indices didn't drop as far percentage-wise, the dollar amounts are staggering. - Nasdaq: -$480 Billion - S&P 500: -$380 Billion Even the "magnificent" names are feeling the gravity. 3️⃣ Crypto Chaos ₿ Digital assets followed the macro trend down. - Bitcoin: -6.6% (-$108 Billion) - Ethereum: -7.5% (-$25 Billion) Why does this matter for you? In a world of "instant liquidity" and "algorithmic trading," volatility is the new baseline. When correlations go to 1.0, everything drops at once. There was nowhere to hide today. Over $6,500,000,000,000 wiped off the map🧐 Source: Bull Theory

After three straight cuts, the FOMC is holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%. But the real story isn't the percentage—it’s the pressure. Here is what you need to know about the shift in DC today: 🔹 The "Labor Scare" is over: The Fed removed the language suggesting they're worried about the job market. They now see risks as "balanced." 🔹 Inflation is sticky: With growth tracking at a massive 5.4%, the Fed is worried about a second wave of price hikes. 🔹 A House Divided: Two Trump-appointed governors (Miran and Waller) dissented, pushing for more cuts despite the hold. 🔹 The End of an Era: Jerome Powell has only two meetings left. Between DOJ subpoenas over office renovations and a Supreme Court battle over firing governors, the Fed’s independence is being tested like never before. The big question for the markets: Who takes the wheel next? 🏎️ Prediction markets are currently betting on BlackRock’s Rick Rieder to succeed Powell. Below is the Fed statement with changes in red Source: CNBC

A rock has outperformed the collective genius of the US capital markets by more than 100% Source: zerohedge

Microsoft delivered impressive headline numbers, with revenue jumping 17% to $81.3 billion and Azure cloud growth accelerating to 39%, driven by fierce AI demand. The Intelligent Cloud segment is now a massive engine, crossing $32.9 billion in sales. However, capital expenditure nearly doubled to ~$30 billion, raising fears about cash burn. Second, the massive 60% profit jump can be misleading as it includes a $7.6 billion paper gain from the OpenAI investment. Stripping that out, real profit growth was much lower, leaving investors worried that the costs of the AI boom are rising faster than the immediate cash returns. 🔹 EPS: $4.14 vs. $3.91 est. ✅ 🔹 Revenue: $81.27B vs. $80.31B est. ✅ Key takeaways: 🔸 Intelligent Cloud rev: +29% YoY 🔸 Productivity rev: +16% YoY 🔸 Computing rev: -3% YoY 🔸 MSFT Cloud rev: +26% YoY 🔸 Azure/Cloud: +39% YoY Source: KaizenInvestor @Kaizen_Investor Barchart

This is an effort to bring in more retail money which is largely in US stocks. This comes after the government said you have to take a training course... Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg

Government bonds with maturities of up to 4 years are now yielding negative returns. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg