Don't be too excited about Fed rate cuts.
Examining Fed rate cycles since 1970s has revealed that investors have more to fear from 1st cut in a cycle than the pause. On average, sp500 is up +5% over 100 days between last Fed tightening and 1st cut. The trough in broader market is -23% over 200 days after 1st cut in a series, SRP has calculated. Source: HolgerZ
Great visual by Quartr ->
Agriculture equipment giant $DE may appear boring at first glance. Under the hood lies a complex and fascinating entity with a rich 187-year history, leveraging cutting-edge chips, sensors, and autonomy technology. $DE has grown its EPS at a 11.7% CAGR, or 38x, since 1990
Tech Stocks are trading at all-time highs relative to the SP500, even surpassing the peak of the Dot Com bubble...
Source: BofA, Bar chart
Cocoa is the new crypto
Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
In case you missed it:
After bank of japan abolished negative interest rates this week for 1st time since 2016, the volume of bonds with negative interest rates has shrunk to $300mln. At its peak, there was a volume of $18tn worth of bonds with negative rates. But this weird experiment seems to be over – for now. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
#ChartOfTheDay: European High Yield Faces CCC-Rated Headwinds 📊
European High Yield markets encountered headwinds last week, particularly among the weakest issuers with CCC ratings, which experienced a notable decline of -0.7%. This downturn was fueled by renewed credit concerns, exemplified by significant drops (-30 points) in the senior unsecured debt of Altice France following debt restructuring announcements, and Ardagh Packaging exploring its debt structure. These incidents follow the recent Intrum crisis, where debt collector bonds plummeted by 20 points amid restructuring talks. These developments have erased the year-to-date gains of CCC-rated bonds in Europe, which stood at +6% before last week's events. This serves as a stark reminder of how quickly circumstances can change, especially in today's volatile interest rate environment! Stay informed and vigilant in navigating the ever-changing landscape of high yield markets. #HighYield #CreditConcerns #MarketVolatility 📉
The Fed wants to loosen into what has already been the largest effective easing of financial conditions that we've seen from peak to trough...
equity markets, gold and digitalgold absolutely love it! Source: Markets & Mayhem
Turkey raises benchmark rate unexpectedly by 500bps to 50%.
But main rate still way below inflation of 67.1%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
