In case you missed it: 2-Year Treasury Yield jumps above 5% to its highest level since November 10
Source: Barchart
What's going on here?
Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
BOJ recent actions in one image
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Asset Managers are the most long U.S. equity Futures in AT LEAST the last 12 years 👀
Source: Barchart, JP Morgan
One of the most important chart in the asset allocation decision process:
Stocks vs. long duration US Treasuries. The trend is your friend Source: J-C Parets
~33% of all S&P 500 stock trades are now executed in the last 10 minutes of the trading session.
This is up from ~27% in 2021 and has been steadily increasing over the last few months. The entire trading session lasts for 390 minutes, but ONE THIRD of all trades are done in the last 10. Interestingly, assets of passive equity funds such as ETFs have risen to nearly $12 trillion in the US, according to Bloomberg. These funds usually execute their trades near the end of a trading session. This explains the significant spike in volatility at the end of the day. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
The correlation between tech stocks and treasuries is now as positive as it was during the peak of the tech bubble in early 2000.
This issue strikes at the heart of conventional 60/40 portfolios, as the risk of overweighting these two asset classes has significantly increased. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Amazon beats on top and bottom lines. Guidance is mixed.
Amazon reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter, driven by growth in advertising and cloud computing. The stock was volatile in extended trading. Amazon expects a continued jump in profitability for the second quarter but at a more measured pace. The company said operating income will be $10 billion to $14 billion, up from $7.7 billion a year earlier. $AMZN Amazon Q1 FY24: • Revenue +13% Y/Y to $143B ($0.7B beat). • Operating margin 11% (+7pp Y/Y). • FCF $50B TTM. • Earnings per share: 98 cents vs. 83 cents expected by LSEG AWS: • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $25.0B. • Operating margin 38% (+14pp Y/Y). Q2 FY24 Guidance: • Revenue ~$144-$149B ($150B expected), representing growth of 7% to 11%. Source: App Economy Insights
