It's liquidity stupid!
Strong M2 growth in China, and to a smaller extent Brazil and India, add to the ongoing expansion of M2 in the United States and in Europe. Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to a broadly supportive liquidity environment for risk assets. The S&P 500 continues to follow the evolution of our Global M2 proxy with an 11-week lag. Bitcoin has desynchronized from our Global M2 proxy since mid-August but bounced up strongly last week. Will it catch up our Global M2 proxy (and rise toward 140k)? NB: liquidity is one risk assets driver among others. Past results do not guarantee future results
It seems that Russell 2000 small & mid caps ETF $IWM is joining the breakout party...
Source: Trend Spider
Since 2000, dollar is down 82% against gold
Source: Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop on X
Japan 40Y yield back to all time highs
Source: zerohedge
France changes its Prime Ministers more often than some people buy new underwear...
Source: Connexion VisActu
France bond risk hits Nine-Month high amid fears over government - Bloomberg
France’s new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has resigned just weeks after his appointment, plunging the country into a fresh political crisis. Lecornu, France’s fifth PM in less than two years, had his work cut out to convince the country — and investors — that he could unite a fractious and divided parliament enough to get a 2026 budget over the line. With the prospect of a state budget being passed now in doubt, French markets reacted strongly to the news, with the yield on the 30-year government bond, or OAT, hitting a one-month high of 4.44% before retreating slightly. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose to a 10-day high of 3.599%. Meanwhile, France’s CAC 40 index slumped 2.0% and the euro fell 0.7% against the dollar - CNBC
LATEST: December has an 86.3% of another rates cut.
That would make it 2 rates cuts before 2026. Source: Cointelegraph, CME Fed Watch
Key Upcoming Events This Week:
Tuesday - NY Fed Inflation Expectations data Wednesday - Fed meeting minutes release Thursday - Fed Chair Powell speech Friday - MI Consumer Sentiment & Expectations data, September Jobs Report (if govt shutdown ends) Source: investing.com
