US Rate-cut expectations were revised downward last week.
For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. This also happens to be the first time that markets align with the latest Fed guidance. Odds of a rate cut in this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in May are down to ~7%. Just 3 months ago, markets saw SEVEN rate cuts in 2024 with rate cuts beginning this month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Brilliant chart by the wonderful folks at Longview Economics showing the Top 10 stocks as a share of global market cap (%).
Source: Longview Economics
Is more foodflation coming?
Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
Daily Routine
Source: Seek Wiser
S&P 500 Tech Profit Margins versus the rest.
Source: Eugene Ng, Goldman Sachs
Financial stress is the lowest since the Fed began raising rates, which begs the question -- why cut this year? 🤔
Source: Markets & Mayhem, St Louis Fed
China kicks off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations - CNBC
- Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters’ poll, while industrial production increased 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2%, more than the forecast of 3.2%. - Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 14.4% from a year ago during the first two months of the year.
Nikkei reported BOJ conducted a gensaki (reverse repo with JGB collateral) operation Monday for the first time in about a month.
*Article cited broad upward pressures on rates amid heightening expectations of an imminent BOJ rate hike, leading traders to conclude the measure was meant to prepare for market reactions Source: C.Barraud https://lnkd.in/e8c8ubcx
