US 10y yields keep rising with most of the increase is due to the rise in real yields. US 10 year yields is now at 4.65%, 10 year real yields at 2.29%
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Japanese Yen falling to lowest levels against the U.S. Dollar since the BOJ intervened last year
150 level approaching fast 👀 Meanwhile, The Bank of Japan announced an extra bond-buying plan for this week as a global debt selloff forces policymakers into the market to curb sharp increases in yields. The BOJ will purchase extra amounts of 5-to-10-year debt on Wednesday as it strives to slow rising yields that are at the highest level in a decade. The benchmark 10-year maturity climbed to 0.775% Monday, a level last seen in 2013. Japan’s 20- and 30-year yields are at similar peaks while Treasury yields also keep moving higher. Japanese sovereign yields have risen as speculation grows the central bank will end its negative interest rate sooner rather than later, while the US Federal Reserve will also keep borrowing costs high. The BOJ has already conducted three unscheduled buying operations since late July to manage yields after adjusting policy to let them rise more. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Bloomberg on the status of US "excess pandemic savings."
Source: Bloomberg
The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment
Imagine the deficit in next recession, whenever it may come. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
We have seen one of the fastest drops in equity positioning since early 2022. Time to think about the upside pain trade?
Source: TME, DB
Investors complacency in one chart
VIX has spent 92 sessions below 20, the longest streak since Covid, yet low implied vol regimes can last significantly longer. Source: Goldman Sachs
Plunging US Supply sends oil prices around the world soaring
>>> In recent months, the US had helped fill a void left in the market, routinely sending more than 4 million barrels every day to sate global appetite. Between overseas shipments and strong domestic demand, stockpiles quickly declined in the US. As oil stockpiles are running out in the US, they’re also running out in Europe, because it relies on US exports. As supplies collapse, cargoes of WTI Midland crude for January delivery to Asia are being offered for sale at premiums of $9 a barrel above benchmark Dubai oil, the highest premium seen this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the futures market, the tightness in US supplies narrowed the gap between US crude and international benchmark Brent to under $3 a barrel, the smallest since May last year. Meanwhile, the spread between Brent and Middle East’s Dubai marker — also known as Brent-Dubai EFS — has skyrocketed (See below). Source: www.zerohedge.com
MicroStrategy has been able to outperform the underlying Bitcoin price mostly because of its use of leverage
Specifically, $MSTR took on a total of $2.2 billion in debt to purchase its BTC, the earliest of which matures at the end of 2025. This debt has a blended interest rate of only 1.6%. The markets in 2021 were distorted, and $MSTR capitalized by offering $1.05 billion in convertible debt with a 2027 maturity at 0%, which it used to buy $BTC. In other words, MSTR was able to borrow $1.05 billion until 2027 at 0% interest! This $2.2 billion of debt finances a $BTC position with a current market value of $4.3 billion. Source: Mark Harvey
