For the next 45 days or so, the US government will NOT be shut down - this is most likely a relief for markets
Still, this stopgap bill is only a temporary solution. They are just kicking the can down he road another time. Indeed, the House and Senate are both struggling to approve yearlong spending bills, and the gulf between the two parties remains vast. And as highlighted by the Kobeissi letter, there is still NO LONG-TERM PLAN. For nearly 20 years, it was effectively free for the US to issue debt as debt service costs were ~1.5%. Now, debt service costs have doubled to 3% and will rise toward 5% as rates skyrocket. To put this in perspective, 5% on $33 trillion is ~$1.7 trillion PER YEAR on interest expense. As deficit spending rises, rates are also rising as the US issues trillions in bonds to cover the deficit. It's a never ending cycle of borrowing to spend which is driving rates higher and leading to interest expense being 20% of US revenue... How are they going to fix this? Source: CBO, The Kobeissi Letter
In case you missed it:
The past few months have brought a very significant tightening of US financial conditions; the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is now at the most restrictive point since November 2022. (HT GS) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was the first Bitcoin ETF to trade on a major exchange in the US, launched Q4 2021 at the height of the last bull market
The ETF currently holds 35,890 BTC, and is the oldest and largest fund in the space. How much Bitcoin does each ETFs hold? 👇 Source: Coingecko
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 38 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 38 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history
Tesla dominance in the US electric vehicle market
Source: Vital Knowledge Media
The S&P’s price has diverged from the trend for EPS estimates recently
The rise in bond yields probably explains this dichotomy
Last time global stocks had a longest streak of losses than the one we're in currently was 12 years ago
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
Is the golden era of 60/40s coming to an end?
And if equities / bonds correlation stay positive, which asset classes should be added to portfolios? hard assets and commodities? alternatives (private debt, private equities, etc.)? cash on an opportunistic basis? Source chart: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
