The market is at the same level as 1960 when adjusted for M2 money supply
Source: Game of Trades
BREAKING: 14% of all commercial real estate (CRE) loans and 44% of office building loans are now in "negative equity."
In other words, the debt is now greater than the property value on all of these properties. Currently, US banks hold over $2.9 trillion of CRE debt, the majority of which is held by regional banks. Office building prices are down 40% from their highs and CRE as a whole is down over 20%. All as rates rise and many of these loans are due CRE is beyond bear market territory.
With the exception of Tesla (-25%), the Magnificent 7 stocks are off to a big start in 2024 with Nvidia (+26%) once again leading the way
Source: Charlie Bilello
This is mind-blowing!
$GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL Source: Bespoe
Intel $INTC, is down 10% after-hours after providing weaker than expected guidance in their earnings release
The move lower has erased $20 billion in market cap in just two hours. Intel provided Q1 2024 EPS guidance of $0.13, which is well below expectations of $0.34. They are also guiding Q1 2024 revenue of $12.2B-$13.2B, below expectations of $14.2B. The question becomes if this weakness is an Intel issue or an industry-wide issue. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Tesla shares plunged 12% in worst trading day since 2020 after automaker warns of slowdown
Note that short interest as a % of equity float is near record low... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 17% from its peak in October 2022 (from $496,800 to $413,200)
After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally before bottoming. Source: Charlie Bilello
Gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter
That’s much higher than the 2% expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones, underscoring continued economic resiliency despite interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth! Source; www.zerohedge.com
