The Fed just triggered the biggest stock-buying program since Nov 2022...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Interest rate futures shift to showing a ~57% chance of rate CUTS beginning in March 2024
Markets also see a growing 9% chance of rate cuts beginning as soon as next month. Futures are projecting a total of FIVE rate cuts in 2024. There's a 28% chance of 6 cuts and an 11% chance of 7 cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed just said they see just 3 rate cuts in 2024. So markets are still "fighting" the Fed. But the Fed is starting to adjust... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The $VIX currently stands at 12.07, its lowest close since November 2019
Soruce: Charlie Bilello
Earnings should return to growth in 2024 across all major global markets after a difficult 2023, led by emerging markets
All major regions are on track for earnings declines in 2023, creating easy comparisons for 2024. Source: Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg
After 2 years of the most aggressive FED rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the price of US houses (3 years change) is rising at the fastest pace in 40 years...
that sounds a bit counterintuitive at first glance as most surveys show that the housing affordability is at record low Source: BofA
The tech and AI trade is very crowded. The net long positioning on the Nasdaq 100 by asset managers and leveraged funds is at a record high
Source: Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research
The Nasdaq 100 total return index closed at a new all-time high yesterday for the first time since December 27, 2021 (715 days)
S&P 500 total return index is 3 bps away from a new all-time closing high. Source: Charlie Bilello
Who owns US Treasuries? For the first time since 1998, the private foreign sector now holds more US Treasuries than the official foreign sector
For 25+ years, the biggest foreign holders of US Treasuries were central banks around the world. However, this has now changed. reasons? QT but also foreign central banks buying less US Treasuries. Meanwhile, yield starving private investors keep accumulating US Treasuries. Source: Apollo, The Kobeissi Letter
