BREAKING: There is now a 77% chance of at least one Magnificent 7 company buying Bitcoin in 2025.
The odds of a Magnificent 7 company buying Bitcoin before 2026 have jumped from 49% to 77%, according to @Kalshi .This comes as Michael Saylor has called on Microsoft, $MSFT, and other technology giants to buy Bitcoin. Prediction markets see more Bitcoin adoption ahead. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Today's bombshell >>>
In a jaw-dropping 3-minute video, BlackRock just challenged Bitcoin's most sacred promise. The world's largest asset manager suggests the unthinkable: "There's no guarantee that Bitcoin will maintain its 21 million coin limit." They’re right—there’s no guarantee. If everyone decides to change the supply cap, then it will be changed. But that’s highly unlikely. See some comments below on X
The 4D's of Bitcoin Adoption are happening:
- Democratization Bitcoin democratized property rights. - Dematerialization Capital is moving from analog capital->digital capital. - Disruption Finance is shifting -> Bitcoin. - Deflation All goods are being repriced by this. Source: Dante Cook
Bitcoin is still tracking global M2 with a ~70-day lag.
Two scenarios: dislocate from global M2 thanks to BTC-native buy side, or continue following it into a deep mid-cycle correction. Source: Joe Consorti, Bloomberg
Bitcoin Policy Institute drafts Executive Order for Strategic
Bitcoin Reserve for Trump to sign on Day 1 🚀
Bitcoin’s current token distribution:
57% Individuals 17.6% Lost 6.6% Not mined yet 5.2% Satoshi Wallet 3.9% ETFs 3.6% Companies 3.4% Miners 2.7% Governments Source: Cory Bates on X
🚨 ALERT: $2.14 BILLION worth of Bitcoin shorts face liquidation if $BTC reaches $111,111.
Source: cointelegraph.com
The case for a 2% Bitcoin allocation into multi-assets portfolios by Blackrock:
"So how can investors think about a bitcoin allocation? We take a risk budgeting approach: sizing the allocation based on how much it would contribute to total portfolio risk – measured by its long-run volatility and correlation to other assets (...). But from a portfolio construction perspective, it has some similarities with the “magnificent 7” group of mostly mega-cap tech stocks. Their market value – averaging $2.5 trillion in December 2024 – is similar to bitcoin’s (...) In a traditional portfolio with a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, those seven stocks – if held at their current weights in the MSCI World – each account for 4% of the overall portfolio risk on average. That’s about the same share a 1-2% exposure to bitcoin would represent: Even though bitcoin’s correlation to other assets is relatively low, it’s more volatile, making its effect on total risk contribution similar overall. A bitcoin allocation would have the advantage of providing a diverse source of risk, while an overweight to the magnificent 7 would add to existing risk and to portfolio concentration. Why not more than 2%? A larger bitcoin allocation means its share of overall portfolio risk rises sharply. This effect is small when the allocation is small, but above 2% bitcoin’s share of total portfolio risk becomes outsized compared with the average magnificent 7 stock (...) . In an extreme case, should there no longer be any prospect of broad bitcoin adoption, the loss could be the entire 1-2% allocation. We think this is much less likely to happen to a magnificent 7 stock given these companies generate major cash flow and have tangible underlying assets. The upshot? By allocating no more than 2% to bitcoin, investors would: 1) introduce a very different source of return and risk; and 2) manage risk exposure to bitcoin".
